National Accounts Estimates (2019 – 2022) – September 2022 issue
Highlights
GDP growth rate
Year 2021
1. Latest available information indicates that
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at market prices grew by 3.7% in 2021, after a contraction of 14.6% in 2020 and
Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices grew by 4.4% in 2021, as opposed to a decline of 14.4% in 2020.
Year 2022 (Forecast)
2. On the basis of information gathered on key sectors of the economy, performance observed in the first semester of 2022 and taking into consideration policy measures announced in the budget 2022/2023:
- GDP at market prices in 2022 would grow by 7.2%, same as forecasted in June 2022; and
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- GVA at basic prices in 2022 would grow by 8.5%instead of 7.9% as forecasted in June 2022.
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3. Main contributors to the 8.5% growth in GVA at basic prices: “Accommodation and food service activities"
(5.0 percentage points), “Manufacturing" (0.7 percentage point), “Financial and insurance activities", “Public administration and defence; compulsory social security" and “Human health and social work activities" each contributing 0.4 percentage point, “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles" (0.3 percentage point), “Professional, scientific and technical activities" and “Information and communication" each contributing 0.2 percentage point.
4. The main assumptions used are as follows:
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a) Sugarcane: a sugar production of 240,000 tonnes in 2022 compared to 255,818 tonnes in 2021, resulting in a decline of 7.2% same as in 2021.
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b) Other agriculture: to grow by 3.9% compared to 8.5% in 2021.
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c) Manufacturing: to grow by 5.4%, lower than the 8.3% growth in 2021, assuming growths in 'food processing' (5.8%), 'textile manufacturing' (2.9%) and 'other manufacturing' (7.2%).
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d) Construction: to grow by 1.1% compared to 22.7% in 2021, based on ongoing implementation of main public projects (Metro Express, decongestion programme, drain projects, new hospital at Flacq and construction of Cruise Terminal Building) and private construction projects (smart city projects, morcellement projects and property development scheme projects).
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e) Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow at a lower rate of 2.2% compared to 4.1% in 2021.
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f) Transportation and storage: to grow by 2.0% compared to 2.7% in 2021.
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g) Accommodation and food service activities: to expand by 200.8%, based on expected tourist arrivals of around 1,000,000 in 2022 compared to 179,780 in 2021.
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h) Information and communication: to grow at by 3.9% compared to 7.1% in 2021.
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i) Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 3.0%, lower than the 4.6% growth in 2021.
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j) Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to grow at a higher rate of 5.0% compared to 0.9% in 2021.
Consumption and Saving
5.
Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 3.7% in 2022 against the 1.9% growth in 2021.
Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage to GDP at market prices for 2022would reach 11.1 from 10.3 in 2021.
Investment
6.
Investment, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), would grow by 1.0% in 2022, after a growth of 14.0% in 2021. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment would grow by 0.4% compared to the 14.8% growth in 2021.
7.
Private sector investment would grow by 1.3% in 2022 compared to the 18.4% growth in 2021 and
Public sector investment would decline by 0.1% in 2022 as opposed to the 0.1% growth registered in 2021.
8.
Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices would decrease to 19.2% in 2022, from 19.5% in 2021.
Private investment rate would decrease to 15.1% in 2022 from 15.4% in 2021 and
public investment rate would decrease to 4.0% in 2022 from 4.1% in 2021.
9.
The share of private sector investment in GFCF would increase to 79.1% in 2022 from 78.9% in 2021, while that of
the public sector would decrease to 20.9% from 21.1% in 2021. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the share of private sector investment in 2022 would be 79.2% and that of the public sector, 20.8%.
September 2022
