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1. Throughout the period 2017 to 2019, the quarterly GDP followed almost the same seasonal pattern each year. Production is relatively low in the first quarter, increases gradually in the two subsequent quarters and peaks in the last quarter before declining in the first quarter of the following year.
Year-on-year growth rates
2. Based on available data for the fourth quarter, Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate for year 2020 works out to -14.7% compared to a forecast of -15.2% made in December 2020.
3. GVA growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2020 over the corresponding quarter of 2019 is estimated at -10.8%. The contraction is mainly due to:
Quarterly growth rates of components of expenditure
4. Total final consumption expenditure in real terms further contracted by 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2020 following that of 12.3% observed in the corresponding quarter of 2019. Final consumption expenditure of households declined by 8.5% and that of general government by 0.6%.
5. Investment (Gross fixed capital formation) contracted by 6.4% after that of 19.9% observed in the third quarter of 2020. The 6.4% decline resulted from contractions in “Building and construction work" (-0.3%) and “Machinery and equipment" (-18.1%).
6. Exports of goods and services further contracted by 40.4% after that of 36.6% in the previous quarter. The contraction is due to declines of 2.5% and 64.3% in exports of goods and export of services respectively.
Quarter-to-quarter GVA growth (based on seasonally adjusted GVA)
7. Based on seasonally adjusted data, quarter to quarter GVA registered a growth of 3.0% in the fourth quarter of 2020 after that of 31.1% in the previous quarter.
31 March 2021