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1. Throughout the period 2017 to 2019, the quarterly GDP followed almost the same seasonal pattern each year. Production is relatively low in the first quarter, increases gradually in the two subsequent quarters and peaks in the last quarter before declining in the first quarter of the following year.
Year-on-year growth rates
2. GVA growth rate for the first quarter of 2021 over the corresponding quarter of 2020 is estimated at -8.4%. The contraction was mainly due to:
Quarterly growth rates of components of expenditure
3. Total final consumption expenditure in real terms further contracted by 4.2% in the first quarter of 2021 following that of 8.3% observed in the previous quarter. Final consumption expenditure of households declined by 4.2% and that of general government by 4.0%.
4. Investment (Gross fixed capital formation) contracted by 5.5% after that of 9.1% observed in the fourth quarter of 2020. The 5.5% decline resulted from contraction in “Machinery and equipment" (-10.2%), partly offset by an increase in “Building and construction work" (1.0%).
5. Exports of goods and services further contracted by 10.6% after that of 42.4% in the previous quarter. The contraction is due to declines of 16.8% and 6.7% in exports of goods and export of services respectively.
Quarter-to-quarter GVA growth (based on seasonally adjusted GVA)
Based on seasonally adjusted data, quarter to quarter GVA registered a contraction of 2.6% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to a growth of 2.7% in the previous quarter.