National Accounts Estimates (2018 – 2022) – June 2022 issueHighlights
1. The June 2022 issue of the Economic and Social Indicators on National Accounts estimates comprises a set of revised National Accounts estimates for the period 2018 to 2021, including a first forecast for 2022.
2. The main revision exercise consisted of benchmarking National Accounts estimates from year 2013 to 2018, following data obtained from the Census of Economic Activities (CEA) conducted in 2018. The estimates in this issue are therefore not strictly comparable with figures published in previous National Accounts publications, which were based on the previous round of the CEA conducted in 2013. Furthermore, the revision exercise brought some other improvements in the estimation process and coverage. Henceforth, all National Accounts data will be reported on the basis of the new benchmarked series.
3. The introduction of new national accounts benchmarks resulted in a revision to previously published national accounts statistics. The level of GDP has been revised upwards throughout the period 2018 to 2021. However, some marginal changes are noted in the GDP growth rates.
Year 2021
4. Latest available information indicates that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at market prices grew by 3.6% in 2021, after a contraction of 14.6% in 2020 and Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices grew by 4.2% in 2021, as opposed to a decline of 14.4% in 2020.
Year 2022 (Forecast)
5. On the basis of policy measures announced in the budget 2022/2023 and taking into account the target set by the authorities to reach 1 million tourist arrivals during the year and considering the easing of sanitary restrictions as from 01 July 2022, GDP at market prices in 2022 is forecasted to grow at a higher rate of 7.2% compared to 3.6% growth in 2021 and GVA at basic prices is expected to expand by 7.9%, higher than the 4.2% growth in 2021.
6. Main contributors to the 7.9% growth in GVA at basic prices: “Accommodation and food service activities" (5.1 percentage points), “Financial and insurance activities" (0.5 percentage point), “Manufacturing" (0.4 percentage point), “Professional, scientific and technical activities" (0.3 percentage point), “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles", “Information and communication", “Public administration and defence; compulsory social security" and “Human health and social work activities" each contributing 0.2 percentage point.
7. The main assumptions used are as follows:
a)
| Sugarcane: a sugar production of 250,000 tonnes in 2022 compared to 255,818 tonnes in 2021, resulting in a decline of 2.3% following a contraction of 7.2% in 2021.
|
b)
| Other agriculture: to grow by 3.5% compared to 8.5% in 2021.
|
c)
| Manufacturing: to grow by 3.0%, lower than the 6.8% growth in 2021, assuming growths in 'food processing' (3.0%), 'textile manufacturing' (5.0%) and 'other manufacturing' (2.0%).
|
d)
| Construction: to grow by 1.1% compared to 22.7% in 2021, based on ongoing implementation of main public projects (Metro Express, decongestion programme, drain projects, new hospital at Flacq, construction of Cruise Terminal Building and Data Technology Park at Cote D'Or) and private construction projects (smart city projects, morcellement projects and Property Development Scheme (PDS) projects).
|
e)
| Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow at a lower rate of 1.6% compared to 4.1% in 2021
|
f)
| Transportation and storage: to grow by 2.0% compared to 2.7% in 2021.
|
g)
| Accommodation and food service activities: to expand by 206.0%, based on expected tourist arrivals of around 1,000,000 in 2022 compared to 179,780 in 2021.
|
h)
| Information and communication: to grow at by 4.0% compared to 7.1% in 2021
|
i)
| Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 3.4%, lower than the 4.6% growth in 2021.
|
j)
| Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to grow at a higher rate of 2.8% compared to 1.0% in 2021.
|
- Consumption and Saving
8. Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 2.6% in 2022 against the 1.9% growth in 2021. Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage to GDP at market prices for 2022 would reach 11.4 from 10.3 in 2021.
Investment
9. Investment, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), would grow by 0.9% in 2022, after a growth of 14.0% in 2021. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment would decrease by 0.1% as opposed to the 14.8% growth in 2021.
10. Private sector investment would grow by 0.3% in 2022 compared to the 18.3% growth in 2021 and Public sector investment would grow by 2.9% in 2022, higher than 0.1% growth registered in 2021.
11. Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices would decrease to 18.8% in 2022, from 19.5% in 2021. Private investment rate would decrease to 14.7% in 2022 from 15.4% in 2021 and public investment rate would decrease to 4.0% in 2022 from 4.1% in 2021.
12. The share of private sector investment in GFCF would decrease to 78.5% in 2022 from 78.9% in 2021, while that of the public sector would increase to 21.5% from 21.1% in 2021. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the share of private sector investment in 2022 would be 78.6% and that of the public sector, 21.4%.
| 
| 
|
30 June 2022
