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National Accounts Estimates (2018 – 2021) – June 2021 issue
1. Based on data available for all four quarters of 2020, GDP at market prices contracted by 14.9%, as opposed to a growth of 3.0 % in 2019. Year 2021 (Forecast)2. On the basis of information gathered on key sectors of the economy, performance observed in the first quarter of 2021, recent free trade agreements, measures announced in the budget 2021/2022 and uncertainties in international travel due to sanitary conditions, GDP at market prices is forecasted to grow by 5.4% compared to a decline of 14.9% in 2020.
3. GVA at current basic prices is forecasted at around R 407.2 billion and GDP at current market prices at around R 463.7 billion in 2021.
The main assumptions used to work out the forecast of 2021 are as follows:
5. Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage of GDP at market prices for 2021 would reach 11.4 from 8.2 in 2020.
6. Investment, as measured by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), would grow by 11.3% in 2021, compared to a contraction of 26.2% in 2020. 7. Private sector investment would grow by 14.1% in 2021 as opposed to a 23.2% decline in 2020 and public sector investment would grow by 2.4% in 2021, versus the contraction of 34.1% in 2020.
8. Investment rate is expected to increase to 19.3% in 2021, from 17.9% in 2020. Private investment rate would be 15.1% compared to 13.6% in 2020 and public investment rate would be 4.2% compared to 4.3% in 2020.9. The share of private sector investment in GFCF would reach 78.0% in 2021 from 76.0% in 2020, while that of the public sector would decrease to 22.0% from 24.0% in 2020.