National Accounts Estimates (2018 – 2021) – June 2021 issue
Highlights
Year 2020
1. Based on data available for all four quarters of 2020, GDP at market prices contracted by 14.9%, as opposed to a growth of 3.0 % in 2019.
Year 2021 (Forecast)
2. On the basis of information gathered on key sectors of the economy, performance observed in the first quarter of 2021, recent free trade agreements, measures announced in the budget 2021/2022 and uncertainties in international travel due to sanitary conditions, GDP at market prices is forecasted to grow by 5.4% compared to a decline of 14.9% in 2020.
3. GVA at current basic prices is forecasted at around R 407.2 billion and GDP at current market prices at around R 463.7 billion in 2021.
The main assumptions used to work out the forecast of 2021 are as follows:
- a) Sugarcane/sugar milling: a sugar production of around 275,000 tonnes and expected increase in production of special sugar for exports.
- b)“Textile manufacturing" to bounce back by 18.5%, after a decline of 28.6% in 2020;
- c) Construction: to augment by 25.2% after a decline of 25.8% in 2020, based on expected pick-up of private construction projects such as smart city projects, morcellement projects, Property Development Scheme (PDS) projects and construction of new/renovation of hotels during the second semester of 2021, coupled with ongoing and upcoming public projects such as Metro Express, decongestion programme, drain projects, new hospital at Flacq, construction of Mediclinics, construction of Cruise Terminal and Data Technology Park at Cote D'Or.
- d)Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow by 4.1% in contrast to the contraction of 12.0% in 2020.
- e) Accommodation and food service activities: to increase by 4.0%, based on expected tourist arrivals of around 325,000 in 2021 with the reopening of borders in July 2021, compared to 308,980 in 2020.
- f) Information and communication: to grow at a higher rate of 7.0% compared to 5.9% in 2020.
- g) Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 3.8%, higher than the 1.0% growth in 2020.
Consumption and Saving
4. Final consumption expenditure of households and general government is expected to grow by 1.4% against a drop of 15.7% in 2020
5. Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage of GDP at market prices for 2021 would reach 11.4 from 8.2 in 2020.
Investment
6. Investment, as measured by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), would grow by 11.3% in 2021, compared to a contraction of 26.2% in 2020.
7. Private sector investment would grow by 14.1% in 2021 as opposed to a 23.2% decline in 2020 and public sector investment would grow by 2.4% in 2021, versus the contraction of 34.1% in 2020.
8. Investment rate is expected to increase to 19.3% in 2021, from 17.9% in 2020. Private investment rate would be 15.1% compared to 13.6% in 2020 and public investment rate would be 4.2% compared to 4.3% in 2020.
9. The share of private sector investment in GFCF would reach 78.0% in 2021 from 76.0% in 2020, while that of the public sector would decrease to 22.0% from 24.0% in 2020.
