NAE_Dec21

 

Highlights

Year 2021

GDP growth rate

1.   Based on information gathered on key sectors of the economy, performance observed in the first nine months of 2021 and available indicators for the last quarter of 2021, both GDP at market prices and GVA at basic prices would grow by 4.8% in 2021 instead of 5.4% as forecasted in June 2021. It is worth noting that these figures have been worked out amid uncertainties around the economic impact of the new Omicron COVID-19 variant.

 2.   Main contributors to the 4.8% growth in GVA at basic prices are: “Manufacturing" (1.3 percentage points), “Construction" (1.1 percentage points), “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles" (0.6 percentage point), “Financial and insurance activities" (0.5 percentage point), “Information and communication" (0.4 percentage point), “Professional, scientific and technical activities" and “Agriculture" each contributing 0.3 percentage point and “Public administration and defence; compulsory social security" and “Human health and social work activities" each contributing 0.2 percentage point, partly offset by “Accommodation and food service activities" (-0.5 percentage point) and “Arts, entertainment and recreation" (-0.1 percentage point).

3.   The main assumptions used are as follows:

1.  a) Sugarcane: a sugar production of 250,000 tonnes in 2021 compared to 270,513 tonnes in 2020, resulting in a decline of 9.6% following a contraction of 18.1% in 2020.
2.  b) Other agriculture: to grow by 9.1% against the 0.2% drop in 2020.
3.  c) Manufacturing: to rebound by 10.9%, after a dip of 17.8% in 2020, assuming growths in 'food processing' (4.5%), 'textile manufacturing' (13.7%) and 'other manufacturing' (16.5%).
4.  d) Construction: to augment by 25.0% after a decline of 25.8% in 2020, based on ongoing implementation of main public projects (Metro Express, decongestion programme, drain projects, new hospital at Flacq, construction of Cruise Terminal Building and Data Technology Park at Cote D'Or) and private construction projects (smart city projects, Urban Terminal, morcellement projects, Property Development Scheme (PDS) projects and construction of new hotels).
5.  e) Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow by 4.3% in contrast to the contraction of 12.0% in 2020.
6.  f) Transportation and storage: to rebound by 1.8%, after a sharp decline of 27.7% in 2020.
7.  g) Accommodation and food service activities: to decline by 18.8%, based on expected tourist arrivals of around 175,000 in 2021 compared to 308,980 in 2020.
8.  h ) Information and communication: to grow at a higher rate of 7.1% compared to 5.9% in 2020.
9.  i )Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 4.2%, higher than the 1.0% growth in 2020.
10.  j) Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 4.9% from the decline of 14.5% in 2020.
11.  k) Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to grow by 2.7% as opposed to the 1.7% decline in 2020.
    
     Consumption and Saving
    4.   Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 2.0% in 2021 against a drop of 15.7% in 2020. 
    

5.   Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage to GDP at market prices for 2021 would reach 9.0 from 8.2 in 2020.

 Investment

6.   Investment, as measured by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), would pick up to 11.2% in 2021, after a decline of 26.2% in 2020. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment would grow by 12.0% compared to a dip of 26.3% in 2020.

7.   Private sector investment would expand by 13.6% in 2021 against the 23.2% drop in 2020 and public sector investment would recover by 3.5% in 2021, after a contraction of 34.1% registered in 2020.

8.   Investment rate, as measured by GFCF as a percentage of GDP at market prices, would increase to 19.6% in 2021, from 17.9% in 2020. Private investment rate would increase to 15.2% from 13.6% in 2020 and public investment rate would increase to 4.4% from 4.3% in 2020.

9.   The share of private sector investment in GFCF would increase to 77.7% in 2021 from 76.0% in 2020, while that of the public sector would decrease to 22.3% from 24.0% in 2020. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the share of private sector investment in 2021 would be 77.5% and that of the public sector, 22.5%.

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23 December 2021​