External Trade - 4th Quarter and Year 2019
Highlights
Exports
Total exports for the fourth quarter of 2019 decreased by 9.0% compared to corresponding quarter of 2018. This is mainly explained by decreases in the exports of “Ship’s stores and bunkers” (-17.1%), “Machinery and Equipment” (-19.6%), “Chemicals and related products, n.e.s.” (-12.2%), “Miscellaneous manufactured articles” (-11.9%) and “Food and live animals” (-10.8%), partly offset by an increase in the exports of “Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material” (+12.6%).
Compared to the previous quarter, total export proceeds for the fourth quarter of 2019 amounted to Rs 19,314 million, showing a decrease of 2.9% compared to the previous quarter. This is mainly explained by decreases in the exports of “Ship’s stores and bunkers” (-25.8%), “Chemicals and related products, n.e.s.” (-8.1%), “Miscellaneous manufactured articles” (-7.9%), “Machinery and transport equipment” (-6.2%) and “Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material” (-3.8%), partly offset by an increase in the exports “Food and live animals” (+16.3%).
Total export proceeds for the year 2019 were valued at Rs 79,060 million representing a decrease of 1.6% over the 2018 figure of Rs 80,339 million.
Imports
Total imports in the fourth quarter of 2019 amounted to Rs 52,929 million, showing a decrease of 3.6% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2018. This is mainly due to decreases in the imports of “Mineral fuels, lubricants and related products” (-16.6%), “Chemicals and related products, n.e.s.” (-4.0%), “Miscellaneous manufactured articles” (-3.6%), “Manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials” (-1.7%) and “Food and live animals” (-0.7%), partly offset by increases in “Beverages and Tobacco” (+5.2%) and “Machinery & transport equipment” (+2.3%).
Compared to the previous quarter, total imports for the fourth quarter of 2019 increased by 3.0%. This is mainly due to increases in the imports of “Food and live animals” (+15.5%), “Miscellaneous manufactured articles” (+7.5%) and “Machinery and transport equipment” (+2.1%), partly offset by decreases in imports of “Mineral fuels, lubricants and related products” (-8.5%), “Manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials” (-1.7%) and “Chemicals and related products, n.e.s.” (-0.2%).
Total imports, excluding one - off items, for the year 2019 amounted to Rs 199,111 million, an increase of 3.5%, compared to Rs 192,438 million in 2018.
Balance of trade
The trade deficit for the fourth quarter of 2019 works out to Rs 33,615 million, around 0.2% lower than the deficit of Rs 33,676 million for the corresponding quarter of 2018. Compared to Rs 31,494 million in the previous quarter, the deficit was higher by 6.7%.
The trade deficit for the year 2019 works out to Rs 120,051 million, around 7.1% higher than the deficit of Rs 112,099 million for the year 2018.
Forecast for year 2020
Based on trends and information from various sources, the forecast of total exports including ship stores and bunkers for year 2020, will be around Rs 79,500 million, higher than total exports of Rs 79,100 for 2019. Total imports for year 2020 are forecasted to be around Rs 209,300 million, higher than the total imports of Rs 202,000 million for 2019. To note that both imports figures include one - off items such as metro trains, CEB power generating machines (including windfarms) and marine vessels.
The trade deficit for year 2020 will be around Rs 129,800 million, compared to Rs 122,900 million in 2019.
February 2020
