External Trade - 1st Quarter 2020
Highlights
Exports
For the first quarter of 2020, total exports amounted to Rs 19,165 million, showing a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous quarter. This is mainly explained by decreases in exports of “Animals and vegetable oils, fats & waxes” (-42.9%), “Chemicals and related products, n.e.s.” (-15.2%), “Miscellaneous manufactured articles” (-12.4%), “Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials” (-9.9%), “Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material” (-7.4%) and “Machinery and transport equipment” (-3.8%), partly offset by increases in exports of “Ship’s Stores and Bunkers” (+23.1%), “Crude materials, inedible, except fuels” (+13.6%) and “Food and live animals” (+4.7%).
Compared to the corresponding quarter of 2019, total exports for the first quarter of 2020 decreased by 1.0%. This is mainly explained by decreases in exports of “Chemicals and related products, n.e.s.” (-21.7%), “Miscellaneous manufactured goods” (-12.6%), “Beverages & Tobacco” (-3.4%), “Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material” (-1.1%) and “Food and live animals” (-0.4%), partly offset by increases in exports of “Ship’s stores & bunkers” (+18.8%), “Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials” (+17.8%) and “Machinery and transport equipment” (+4.3%).
Imports
For the first quarter of 2020, total imports for the first quarter of 2020 amounted to Rs 44,053 million, showing a decrease of 16.8% compared to the previous quarter. This is mainly due to decreases in imports of “Miscellaneous manufactured articles” (-40.9%), “Food and live animals” (-22.7%), “Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material” (-21.9%), “Machinery and transport equipment” (-20.1%) and “Chemicals & related products, n.e.s.” (-16.0%), partly offset by an increase in “Mineral fuels, lubricants, & related products” (+18.3%).
Compared to the corresponding quarter of 2019, total imports for the first quarter of 2020 decreased by 4.8%. This is mainly due to decreases in imports of “Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material” (-22.0%), “Food and live animals” (-13.8%), “Chemicals and related products n.e.s” (-11.4%) and “Miscellaneous manufactured articles” (-9.3%) partly offset by increases in the imports of “Mineral fuels, lubricants & related products” (+17.9%) and “Machinery & transport equipment” (+2.6%).
Balance of trade
The trade deficit for the first quarter of 2020 worked out to Rs 24,888 million, 26.0% lower than the deficit of Rs 33,615 million of the previous quarter and 7.5% lower than the deficit of Rs 26,920 million of the corresponding quarter of 2019.
Forecast for year 2020
Based on trends and information from various sources, the forecast of total exports for 2020 will be around Rs 63,800 million, 19.3% lower than the total exports of nearly Rs 79,100 million in 2019. Total imports for 2020, including one-off items such as metro trains and linear accelerator for cancer treatment, will be around Rs 187,100 million, 7.4% lower than the total imports of nearly Rs 202,000 million in 2019.
The trade deficit for 2020 works out to around Rs 123,300 million, 0.3% higher as compared to nearly Rs 122,900 million in 2019.
