National Accounts Estimates - December 2024 Issue
Highlights
Year 2023
1. Latest information on various sectors of the economy indicates that GDP growth rate at market prices for 2023 would be 5.6%, lower than the rate of 7.0% published in September 2024.
Year 2024
GDP growth rate
2. On the basis of information gathered on key sectors of the economy and performance observed in the first nine months of 2024:
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- GDP at market prices in 2024 is forecasted to grow at a rate of 5.1% compared to the 5.6% growth observed in 2023 and
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- GVA at basic prices is expected to grow by 5.1%, lower than the 5.6% growth in 2023.
3. The main contributors to the 5.1% growth in GVA would be:
“Construction" (1.7 percentage points), “Financial and insurance activities" (0.6 percentage point), “Accommodation and food service activities" (0.5 percentage point) and “Wholesale and retail trade" (0.4 percentage point).
4. The main assumptions used are as follows:
(a)
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to grow by 5.9% compared to 13.9% in 2023. Within the sector: (i) “Sugarcane" to contract by 9.4% after a growth of 2.8% in 2023, based on a forecasted local sugar production of 225,000 tonnes compared to 238,854 tonnes in 2023 and
(ii) “Other agriculture" to grow by 7.8% compared to 15.2% in 2023.
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(b)
| Manufacturing: to increase by 1.7%, compared to a growth of 2.1% in 2023. The expected performances of its sub sectors are as follows: - (i) “Sugar milling" to drop by 8.0%, after a growth of 2.5% in 2023. This is due to the combined effect of a sugar production of 225,000 tonnes in 2024 compared to 238,854 tonnes in 2023 and an expected refining of 84,000 tonnes of imported raw sugar in 2024;
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(ii) “Food processing" to grow by 4.7%, after a growth of 4.2% in 2023;
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(iii) “Textile manufacturing" to further drop by 6.5% after a contraction of 9.5% in 2023;
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(iv) “Other manufacturing" to grow by 3.0% compared to a growth of 6.7% in 2023.
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Within the manufacturing sector, activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOEs) are expected to register a “no growth", after a decline of 11.2% in 2023.
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(c)
| Construction: to grow by 25.0% compared to 21.3% in 2023, based on based on ongoing and upcoming public sector projects (expansion of road network, implementation of drain infrastructure projects, construction of social housing units including infrastructural works and other public buildings) and private sector construction projects (development of smart cities, land parcelling projects, property development scheme projects and construction/renovation of hotels).
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(d)
| Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow at a rate of 3.2% compared to 3.0% in 2023.
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(e)
| Transportation and storage: to grow by 4.7%, lower than the rate of 7.3% in 2023.
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(f)
| Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by 7.4%, based on expected tourist arrivals of 1,400,000 in 2024 compared to 1,295,410 in 2023.
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(g)
| Information and communication: to grow by 4.4% compared to 4.0% in 2023.
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(h)
| Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 4.4%, higher than the 3.9% growth in 2023. This would be due to expected growths in “monetary intermediation" (5.0%) and “insurance, reinsurance and pension" (3.8%) and “other financial" (3.6%).
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(i)
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Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 4.0%, compared to the 4.1% growth observed in 2023.
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(j)
| Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to rebound by 3.3% after a drop of 1.0% in 2023.
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(k)
| Arts, entertainment and recreation: to grow at a lower rate of 4.0%, after a growth of 4.3% in 2023.
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Consumption and Saving
5. Final consumption expenditure would grow by 3.0% in 2024 compared to 1.3% in 2023. Gross Domestic Saving (GDS) as a percentage of GDP at market prices for 2024 would be 18.6 compared to 17.2 in 2023.
Investment
6. Investment, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), would grow by 17.2% in 2024, after a growth of 20.3% in 2023. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment would grow by 17.7% compared to the 19.3% growth in 2023.
7. Private sector investment is expected to grow by 17.6% in 2024 compared to the 20.4% growth in 2023 and Public sector investment would grow by 15.6% in 2024, lower than the 19.6% growth observed in 2023.
8. Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices would increase to 24.5% in 2024, from 22.0% in 2023. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 24.3%, higher than the growth of 21.7% in 2023.
9. Private investment rate would increase to 19.7% in 2024 from 17.6% in 2023 and public investment rate would increase to 4.8% in 2024 from 4.3% in 2023.
10. The share of private sector investment in GFCF
is expected to increase to 80.5% in 2024 from 80.3% in 2023 while that of the public sector would decrease to 19.5% from 19.7% in 2023.
