National Accounts Estimates (2022-2025) September Issue
Highlights
Revisions in this issue
1. Following technical assistance received from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the treatment of Global Business Companies (GBC) in both National Accounts and Balance of Payments Statistics, the recommended methodologies have been taken into consideration and the data has been revised accordingly.
Year 2024
2. Based on the latest information obtained, the
GDP growth rate at market prices for 2024 remains 4.9%, same as estimated in June 2025.
Year 2025 (Forecast)
3. Based on information relating to public and private sector investment projects (road network, drain infrastructure, social housing, etc.), policy measures announced in the budget speech 2025/2026, the current global economic context and new information gathered on key sectors of the economy in the first semester of 2025:
• GDP at market prices in 2025 is forecasted to grow by 3.1%.
• GVA at basic prices in 2025 is expected to grow by 3.1%.
4. The main contributors to the 3.1% growth in GVA at basic prices would be:
“Financial and insurance activities" (0.6 percentage point), “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles" and “Agriculture, forestry and fishing" each contributing 0.4 percentage point and “Transportation and storage" (0.3 percentage point).
5. The main assumptions used are as follows:
a) Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to grow by 8.1% compared to an increase of 6.6% in 2024. Within the sector,
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“Sugarcane": a forecasted local sugar production of 220,000 tonnes in 2025 compared to a production of 225,547 tonnes in 2024, resulting in a decline of 4.1% compared to a contraction of 9.7% in 2024, and
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“Other agriculture": to grow by 9.1% compared to 8.6% in 2024.
b) Manufacturing: to grow at a rate of 1.6%, higher than the growth rate of 1.5% in 2024. The expected performances of its sub sectors are as follows:
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“Sugar milling" to drop by 2.4% after a decline of 7.8% in 2024. This results from a combined effect of a sugar production of 220,000 tonnes and a lower import of 84,000 tonnes of sugar for refining compared to 84,975 tonnes imported in 2024;
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“Food processing" to grow by 3.5%, higher than the 3.1% growth in 2024;
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“Textile manufacturing", to further contract by 0.2%, after a contraction of 6.0% in 2024; and
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“Other manufacturing" to grow by 0.5%, lower than the 4.2% growth in 2024.
Within the manufacturing sector, activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOEs) are expected to decline by 0.5%, after a drop of 1.0% in 2024.
c) Construction: to contract by 2.1% compared to a higher growth of 13.3% in 2024, based on ongoing and upcoming public sector projects (expansion of road network, implementation of drain infrastructure projects, construction of social housing units including infrastructural works and other public buildings) and private sector construction projects (development of smart cities, land parcelling projects, property development scheme projects and construction/renovation of hotels and renewable energy generation projects).
d) Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow by 3.3%, higher than the growth of 3.2% in 2024.
e) Transportation and storage: to grow at a higher rate of 5.1%, compared to 4.9% in 2024.
f) Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by 3.0%, based on expected tourist arrivals of around 1,425,000 in 2025, compared to 1,382,177 in 2024.
g) Information and communication: to grow by 5.0%, higher than the growth of 4.5% in 2024.
h) Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 4.6% compared to 4.9% in 2024. This would be due to expected growths in “monetary intermediation" (4.9%), “financial leasing and other credit granting" (5.5%), “insurance, reinsurance and pension" (4.0%) and “other financial activities" (4.1%).
i) Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 3.7%, lower than the 3.8% growth observed in 2024.
j) Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to grow at a lower rate of 2.1% after a growth of 7.2% in 2024.
k) Arts, entertainment and recreation: to grow at a lower rate of 4.6% instead of 4.7% in 2024.
Consumption and Savings
6.
Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 2.9% in 2025 against 3.9% in 2024.
Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage of GDP at market prices for 2025
would reach 16.6 from 16.3 in 2024.
Investment
7. Investment, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), would drop by 4.1% in 2025, after a growth of 8.3% in 2024. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, it would contract by 3.4% compared to a growth of 8.6% in 2024.
8. Private sector investment is expected to decline by 4.7% in 2025 compared to the 10.2% growth in 2024 and
public sector investment would drop by 1.8% in 2025, after a growth of 0.2% growth in 2024.
9. Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices would decrease to 19.7% in 2025, from 21.0% in 2024. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 19.7% compared to 20.8% in 2024.
10. Private investment rate would decrease to 16.1% in 2025 from 17.2% in 2024 and
public investment rate would reach 3.6% in 2025, from 3.8% in 2024.
11.
The share of private sector investment in GFCF is expected to decrease to 81.7% in 2025 from 82.1% in 2024, while that of
the public sector would increase to 18.3% from 17.9% in 2024.
September 2025
