Year 2025
|
1.
| Based on comprehensive sectoral data covering all four quarters of 2025, this ESI issue presents an updated assessment of key economic developments. GDP at market prices grew at rate of 3.2% in 2025 compared to the 4.9% growth in 2024 and GVA at basic prices grew by 3.1% in 2025, lower than the 4.8% growth in 2024.
|
Year 2026 (Forecast)
|
2.
| In a setting of substantial uncertainty, influenced by geopolitical instability, global trade disruptions, and rising price levels and based on the latest information obtained for the tourism sector and on main public and private investment projects, GDP at market prices and GVA at basic prices are both forecasted to grow by 3.0%, provided that the conflict in the Middle East is short-lived.
The main assumptions used are as follows: |
(a)
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to grow by 3.7% based on an expected increase of 4.0% in non-sugarcane agricultural activities and “no growth" in sugarcane agricultural activities,
|
(b)
| Manufacturing: to grow at a higher rate of 2.4%, compared to 1.4% in 2025. The expected performances of its sub sectors are as follows:
|
(i)
| -
“Sugar milling" to record a 'no growth', after a decline of 1.9% in 2025, assuming the same volume of sugar production as in 2025;
|
(ii)
| “Food processing" to grow by 2.5%, following a growth of 2.7% in 2025; |
(iii)
|
“Textile manufacturing" to register a “no growth" after a contraction of 5.5% in 2025, following the one-year renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA);
|
(iv)
|
“Other manufacturing" to grow by 3.5%, following a growth of 3.2% in 2025.
|
|
Within the manufacturing sector, activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOEs) are expected to rebound by 1.0%, after a drop of 1.3% in 2025,
|
(c)
| Construction: to further shrink by 1.0% after a decline of 2.1% in 2025, based on ongoing and upcoming public projects (road infrastructure projects, construction of social housings, the Riviere des Anguilles dam and other public buildings) and private construction projects (smart city projects, morcellement projects, property development scheme projects, renovation of hotels and renewable energy generation projects),
|
(d)
| Accommodation and food service activities: to record a growth of 2.0%, based on 1,465,000 tourist arrivals compared to 1,436,250 in 2025 and a sustained performance in food service activities.
|
(e)
| Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to grow by 1.0% in 2026, following a drop of 1.3% in 2025.
|
| Consumption and Savings |
3.
| Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 2.0% in 2026 against 2.4% in 2025. Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage of GDP at market prices for 2026 would reach 17.6 from 17.4 in 2025.
|
Investment
|
4.
| Investment, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), would grow by 0.3% in 2026, after a contraction of 3.1% in 2025. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, it would grow by 0.3% compared to a decline of 2.3% in 2025.
|
5.
| Private sector investment is expected to decline by 1.7% in 2026 compared to the 2.8% drop in 2025 and public sector investment would grow by 9.6% in 2026, after a contraction of 4.4% in 2025.
|
6.
| Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices would decrease to 19.3% in 2026, from 19.7% in 2025. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 19.3% compared to 19.7% in 2025.
|
7.
| Private investment rate would decrease to 15.6% in 2026 from 16.3% in 2025 and public investment rate would reach 3.7% in 2026, from 3.5% in 2025.
|
8.
| The share of private sector investment in GFCF is expected to decrease to 80.7% in 2026 from 82.4% in 2025, while that of the public sector would increase to 19.3% from 17.6% in 2025.
|
