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National Accounts Estimates - March 2025 Issue

HIGHLIGHTS​

Year 2024

GDP growth rate

1. Based on updated information gathered on key sectors of the economy and data available for all four quarters of 2024, GDP at market prices grew at a rate of 4.7% in 2024, lower than the 5.1% growth estimated in December 2024 while the GVA at basic prices grew at a rate of 4.5%.

2. At industry level, the main changes compared to the figures published in December 2024 are:

1. (i) Manufacturing: a lower growth rate (1.5% instead of 1.7%), mainly explained by lower performance observed in “food processing" (3.0% instead of 4.7%),
2. (ii) Construction: grew by 13.3% instead of 25.0% based on updated data available on construction projects for year 2024,
3. (iii) Accommodation and food service activities: a growth of 5.6% instead of 7.4%, mostly attributed to a lower tourist arrivals of 1,382,177 instead of 1,400,000 forecasted in December 2024,
4. (iv) Public administration and defence; compulsory social securities: increased by 5.8% instead of a growth of 3.3%, mainly due to the effect of the “14th Month Bonus" allowance.
    
   
   Consumption and Savings
   
   3. Final consumption expenditure of households and general government grew by 3.6% in 2024 against the 2.1% growth in 2023. Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage of GDP at market prices for 2024 reached 16.7% from 15.8% in 2023.
   
    

Investment

4. Investment, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), grew by 8.3% in 2024, after a growth of 10.1% in 2023. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment grew by 8.6% compared to 9.1% in 2023.

5. Private sector investment increased by 10.2% in 2024 compared to the 10.8% growth in 2023 and Public sector investment grew by 0.2% in 2024, against a 7.3% growth in 2023. 

6. Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices increased to 21.0% in 2024, from 20.2% in 2023. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate was 20.8% in 2024, compared to 20.0% in 2023.

7. Private investment rate increased to 17.2% in 2024 from 16.3% in 2023 and public investment rate increased to 3.8% in 2024 from 3.9% in 2023.

8. The share of private sector investment in GFCF increased to 82.1% in 2024 from 80.7% in 2023, while that of the public sector decreased to 17.9% from 19.3% in 2023.

Year 2025

9. Based on past trends and latest information available on main public investment projects and uncertainties related to the world economy, both GDP at market prices and GVA at basic prices are forecasted to grow by 3.3% in 2025.

The main assumptions used are as follows:

1. a) Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to grow by 5.5% based on an expected increase of 6.0% in non-sugarcane agricultural activities and “no growth" in sugarcane agricultural activities,
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3. b) Manufacturing: to grow at a higher rate of 3.2%, compared to 1.5% in 2024. The expected performances of its sub sectors are as follows:
1.     (i)“Sugar milling" to record a 'no growth', after a contraction of 7.8% in 2024, assuming the same volume of sugar production as in 2024.
2.     (ii)“Food processing" to grow by 3.5%, following a growth of 3.0% in 2024;
3.     (iii)“Textile manufacturing" to grow by 1.0%, after a drop of 6.1% in 2024;
4.     (iv)“Other manufacturing" to grow by 4.0% following a growth of 4.1% in 2024.
        Within the manufacturing sector, activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOEs) are expected to expand by 0.3%, after a decline of 1.1% in 2024.
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4. c) Construction: to register a “no growth", after a high growth of 9.1% in 2023 and 13.3% in 2024, based on ongoing and upcoming public projects (road infrastructure projects, construction of social housings and other public buildings) and private construction projects (smart city projects, morcellement projects, property development scheme projects and renovation of hotels).
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6. d) Accommodation and food service activities: to record a “no growth", based on around the same number of tourist arrivals as in year 2024.
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8. e) Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to increase by 2.1% in 2025, following a growth of 5.8% in 2024.

10. Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 2.3% in 2025 compared to 3.6% in 2024. GDS as a percentage of GDP at market prices would be 16.6 against 16.7 in 2024.

11. Investment is expected to drop by 1.8% compared to a growth of 8.3% in 2024. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, it would decline by 1.1% compared to a growth of 8.6% in 2024. Investment rate would attain 20.2% in 2025 from 21.0% in 2024.

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28 March 2025

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