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National Accounts Estimates (2020 – 2023) – March 2023 issue


Year 2022

GDP growth rate

1.   Based on data available for all four quarters of 2022, GDP at market prices in 2022 grew by 8.7%, higher than the 7.8% growth estimated in December 2022. Latest information available on various sectors of the economy also shows that GVA at basic prices in 2022 grew by 9.7% instead of 9.1% as estimated in December 2022.

2.   The main changes noted at industry level compared to estimates made in December 2022 are:

​​​​​ Agriculture, forestry and fishing: a growth of 3.4% instead of 2.5%, mainly due to higher non-sugarcane agricultural activities (4.9% instead of 3.9%).​
Manufacturing: a higher growth rate (10.4% instead of 6.3%), mainly explained by improved performances observed in “food processing" (15.4% instead of 8.2%) and “textile manufacturing" (6.8% instead of 2.9%).
​​ Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: grew by 3.0% instead of 2.5% due higher margins on imports.
Financial and insurance activities: a growth of 4.2% instead of 3.7%, mostly attributed to a better performance of “monetary intermediation" (4.5% instead of 3.0%).
Public administration and defence; compulsory social securities: grew by 4.1% instead of 5.2%, resulting from a lower than expected number of new recruits in the public sector.

  1.  Consumption and Saving

3.   Final consumption expenditure of households and general government grew by 3.8% in 2022 against the 2.1% growth in 2021. Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage to GDP at market prices for 2022reached 13.8 from 9.7 in 2021.


4.   Investment, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), grew by 7.8% in 2022, after a growth of 14.0% in 2021. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment grew by 7.2% compared to 14.8% in 2021.

5.   Private sector investment grew by 9.6% in 2022 compared to the 18.4% growth in 2021 and Public sector investment grew by 1.1% in 2022, higher than the 0.1% growth in 2021. 

6.   Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices increased to 19.8% in 2022, from 19.6% in 2021. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate was 19.7%, same as in 2021.

7.   Private investment rate increased to 15.9% in 2022 from 15.5% in 2021 and public investment rate decreased to 3.9% in 2022 from 4.1% in 2021.

8.   The share of private sector investment in GFCF increased to 80.1% in 2022 from 78.9% in 2021, while that of the public sector decreased to 19.9% from 21.1% in 2021.

Year 2023

9.   Based on past trends, latest information available on main public investment projects as announced in the last budget and taking into consideration the target set by the authority to achieve pre-pandemic figures in the tourism sector, both GDP at market prices and GVA at basic pricesare forecasted to grow by 5.0% in 2023, which will mark the country's return to its pre-pandemic level in real terms.

The main assumptions used to work out the forecast of 2023 are as follows:

​​​​​Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to grow by 3.8% based on a local sugar production of around 233,000 tonnes same as in 2022 and an expected increase of 4.2% in non-sugarcane agricultural activities.​
Manufacturing: to grow at a lower rate of 3.5% compared to 10.4% in 2022.
​​Construction: to grow at a higher rate of 5.2% compared to 1.3% in 2022, based on ongoing and upcoming public projects (Metro Express, road infrastructure projects, drain projects, construction of low-cost housing and other public buildings) and private construction projects (smart city projects, morcellement projects, property development scheme projects and renovation of hotels).
Accommodation and food service activities: to expand by 25.7% with tourist arrivals forecasted at around 1.3 million in 2023 compared to 997,290 in 2022.
Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 4.2%, same as in 2022.
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to grow at a lower rate of 2.5% compared to 4.1% in 2022.​

  1. 10. Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 2.6%in 2023 compared to 3.8% in 2022. GDS as a percentage of GDP at market priceswould be 13.1 against 13.8 in 2022.​

11. Investment is expected to grow by 5.3% compared to 7.8% in 2022. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, it would grow by 5.1% compared to 7.2% in 2022. Investment rate would attain 20.4% in 2023 from 19.8% in 2022.​

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​ March 2023