National Accounts Estimates, June 2026 issue
Highlights
Year 2025
1. GDP at market prices grew at a rate of 3.2% in 2025 compared to 4.9% in 2024.
Year 2026 (Forecast)
2. On the basis of policy measures announced in the Budget 2026/2027, especially those relating to public sector investment projects (road network, drain infrastructure, social housing, etc.) and considering the uncertainty linked with the global economic environment,
GDP at market prices is forecasted to grow by 3.0% in 2026 after a growth of 3.2% in 2025.
3. The main assumptions used are as follows:
(a)
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to grow by 4.5% after a higher growth of 8.6% in 2025. Within the sector,
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| | (i)
| “Sugarcane": a forecasted local sugar production of around 225,000 tonnes, resulting in a “no growth" after a decline of 5.5% in 2025, and
|
| | (ii)
| “Other agriculture": to grow by 4.8% after a higher growth of 9.8% in 2025.
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(b)
| Manufacturing: to grow by 2.1%, higher than the 1.4% growth in 2025. The expected performances of its sub sectors are as follows:
|
| | (i)
| “Sugar milling" to grow by 3.9%, after a decline of 1.9% in 2025. This is due to the combined effect of a forecasted sugar production of around 225,000 tonnes for crop year 2026 compared to a production of 220,305 tonnes in 2025 and the forecasted refining of 118,000 tonnes of imported raw sugar in 2026 compared to 89,870 tonnes in 2025;
|
| | (ii)
| “Food processing" to grow by 2.5%, following a higher growth of 2.7% in 2025;
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| | (iii)
| “Textile manufacturing" to contract by 2.5%, after a decline of 5.5% in 2025;
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| | (iv)
| “Other manufacturing" to grow by 3.5% compared to a growth of 3.2% in 2025;
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(d)
| Construction: to further contract by 0.8% compared to a decline of 2.1% in 2025, based on ongoing and upcoming public sector projects (expansion of road network, implementation of drain infrastructure projects, construction of social housing units, Rivière des Anguilles dam and other public buildings) and private sector construction projects (mainly land parcelling projects, renovation of hotels and renewable energy generation projects);
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(e)
| Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow by 3.1% in 2026, lower than the growth of 3.2% in 2025;
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(f)
| Transportation and storage: to grow by 5.0% same as in 2025;
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(g)
| Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by 2.2%, based on an expected tourist arrivals of around 1.470 million;
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(h)
| Information and communication: to grow by 5.0%, lower than the rate of 5.2% in 2025;
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(i)
| Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 4.8% compared to 5.0% in 2025. This would be due to lower growths in “monetary intermediation" (5.4%) and “financial leasing and other credit granting" (5.0%);
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(j)
| Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 3.7%, lower than the growth of 3.8% observed in 2025;
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(k)
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Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to rebound by 1.0% after a contraction of 1.3% in 2025;
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Consumption and Savings
4.
Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 2.1% in 2026 against 2.5% in 2025.
Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage of GDP at market prices for 2026
would reach 17.4 from 17.3 in 2025.
Investment
5. Investment, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), would register a “no growth" in 2026, after a contraction of 3.1% in 2025. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, it would contract by 0.1% compared to a decline of 2.4% in 2025.
6. Private sector investment is expected to decline by 1.2% in 2026 compared to the 2.8% drop in 2025 and
public sector investment would grow by 6.0% in 2026, after a contraction of 4.4% in 2025.
7. Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices would decrease to 19.2% in 2026, from 19.7% in 2025. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 19.2% compared to 19.7% in 2025.
8. Private investment rate would decrease to 15.7% in 2026 from 16.3% in 2025 and
public investment rate would reach 3.6% in 2026, from 3.5% in 2025.
9.
The share of private sector investment in GFCF is expected to decrease to 81.4% in 2026 from 82.4% in 2025, while that of
the public sector would increase to 18.6% from 17.6% in 2025.
June 2026
