National Accounts Estimates - June 2025
Highlights
Year 2024
1. Latest information on various sectors of the economy indicates that
GDP growth rate at market prices for 2024 was 4.9%, higher than the 4.7% growth estimated in March 2025.
Year 2025 (Forecast)
2. On the basis of policy measures announced in the Budget 2025/2026, particularly those relating to public sector investment projects (road network, drain infrastructure, social housing, etc.) and taking into consideration the uncertainties linked with the current global economic environment,
GDP at market prices is forecasted to grow by 3.1% in 2025 after a growth of 4.9% in 2024 and GVA at basic prices is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2025, following a growth of 4.7% recorded in 2024.
3. The main contributors to the 3.2% growth in GVA at basic prices would be:
“Financial and insurance activities" (0.5 percentage point), “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles" and “Agriculture, forestry and fishing" each contributing 0.4 percentage point and “Transportation and storage" (0.3 percentage point).
4. The main assumptions used are as follows:
(a)
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Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to grow by 7.9% after a lower growth of 5.9% in 2024. Within the sector,
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(i) “Sugarcane": a forecasted local sugar production of around 220,000 tonnes, resulting in a further contraction of 4.0% after a decline of 9.7% in 2024, and
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(ii) “Other agriculture": to grow by 9.0% following an increase of 7.8% in 2024.
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(b)
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Manufacturing: to grow by 1.9%, higher than the 1.6% growth in 2024. The expected performances of its sub sectors are as follows:
(i)
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“Sugar milling" to further drop by 2.4%, after a decline of 7.8% in 2024. This is due to the combined effect of a forecasted sugar production of around 220,000 tonnes for 2025 compared to a production of 225,547 tonnes in 2024 and the refining of 84,000 tonnes of imported raw sugar in 2025 compared to 84,975 tonnes in 2024;
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(ii)
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“Food processing" to grow by 3.2%, following a lower growth of 3.1% in 2024;
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(iii)
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“Textile manufacturing" to register a growth of 0.5%, after a contraction of 6.0% in 2024;
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(iv)
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“Other manufacturing" to grow by 1.3% compared to a growth of 4.2% in 2024.
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(c)
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Construction: to grow at a lower rate of 0.5% compared to 13.3% in 2024, based on ongoing and upcoming public sector projects (expansion of road network, implementation of drain infrastructure projects, construction of social housing units and other public buildings) and private sector construction projects (mainly land parcelling projects, renovation of hotels and renewable energy generation projects).
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(d)
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Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow by 3.2%, same as in 2024.
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(e)
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Transportation and storage: to grow by 5.0% compared to 4.9% in 2024.
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(f)
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Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by 1.0%, based on an expected tourist arrivals of around 1.4 million.
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(g)
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Information and communication: to grow by 4.8%, higher than the rate of 4.5% in 2024.
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(h)
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Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 4.0% compared to 4.8% in 2024. This would be due to lower expected growths in “monetary intermediation" (4.5%), “financial leasing and other credit granting" (4.0%), and “other financial" (3.0%).
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(i)
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Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 3.9%, lower than the growth of 4.0% observed in 2024.
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(j)
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Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to grow at a lower rate of 3.0% after a growth of 7.2% in 2024.
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Consumption and Savings
5.
Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 2.9% in 2025 against 3.9% in 2024.
Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage of GDP at market prices for 2025
would reach 16.5 from 16.6 in 2024.
Investment
6. Investment, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), would drop by 3.4% in 2025, after a growth of 8.3% in 2024. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, it would contract by 2.6% compared to 8.6% in 2024.
7. Private sector investment is expected to decline by 4.2% in 2025 compared to the 10.2% growth in 2024 and
public sector investment would grow by 0.1% in 2025, lower than the 0.2% growth in 2024.
8. Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices would decrease to 19.8% in 2025, from 20.9% in 2024. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 19.8% compared to 20.7% in 2024.
9. Private investment rate would decrease to 16.1% in 2025 from 17.2% in 2024 and
public investment rate would reach 3.7% in 2025, same as in 2024.
10.
The share of private sector investment in GFCF is expected to decrease to 81.4% in 2025 from 82.1% in 2024, while that of
the public sector would increase to 18.6% from 17.9% in 2024.
June 2025
