National Accounts Estimates, December 2025 Issue
Highlights
Year 2024
1. Based on the latest information obtained, the
GDP growth rate at market prices for 2024 remains 4.9%, same as estimated in September 2025.
Year 2025 (Forecast)
2. In light of rising tourist arrivals, public and private sector investment projects (such as road networks, drainage infrastructure, and social housing), policy measures set out in the 2025/2026 Budget Speech, prevailing global economic conditions, and updated information from key economic sectors for the first three quarters of 2025:
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- GDP at market prices is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2025.
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- GVA at basic prices in 2025 is expected to grow by 3.1%.
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3. The main contributors to the 3.1% growth in GVA at basic prices would be:
“Financial and insurance activities" (0.6 percentage point), “Agriculture, forestry and fishing" and “Wholesale and retail trade" each contributing 0.4 percentage point and “Transportation and storage" (0.3 percentage point).
4. The main assumptions used are as follows:
(a)
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Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to grow by 7.8% compared to 6.6% in 2024. Within the sector:
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(i)
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“Sugarcane" to contract by 8.6% after a decline of 9.7% in 2024, based on a forecasted local sugar production of 215,000 tonnes compared to 225,547 tonnes in 2024 and
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(ii)
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“Other agriculture" to grow by 9.0% compared to 8.6% in 2024.
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(b)
| Manufacturing: to increase by 1.5%, same as in 2024. The expected performances of its sub sectors are as follows:
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(i)
| “Sugar milling" to drop by 4.5%, after a contraction of 7.8% in 2024. This is due to the combined effect of a sugar production of 215,000 tonnes in 2025 and an expected refining of 84,000 tonnes of imported raw sugar in 202
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(ii)
| “Food processing" to grow by 2.7%, after a growth of 3.1% in 2024
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(iii)
| “Textile manufacturing" to further drop by 1.7% after a contraction of 6.0% in 2024;
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(iv)
| “Other manufacturing" to grow by 1.8% compared to a growth of 4.2% in 2024.
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(v)
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.Within the manufacturing sector, activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOEs) are expected to contract by 1.5%, after a decline of 1.0% in 2024.
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(c)
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Construction: to drop by 2.1% compared to a growth of 13.3% in 2024, based on ongoing and upcoming public sector projects (expansion of road network, implementation of drain infrastructure projects, construction of social housing units including infrastructural works and other public buildings and private sector construction projects (development of smart cities, land parcelling projects, property development scheme projects and construction/renovation of hotels and renewable energy generation projects).
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(d)
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Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow at a rate of 3.3%, higher than the rate of 3.2% in 2024.
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(e)
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Transportation and storage: to grow by 5.1%, higher than the rate of 4.9% in 2024.
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(f)
| Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by 3.5%, based on expected tourist arrivals of 1,435,000 in 2025 compared to 1,382,177 in 2024.
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(g)
| Information and communication: to grow by 5.1% compared to 4.5% in 2024.
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(h)
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Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 4.8%, lower than the 4.9% growth in 2024. This would be due to expected growths in “monetary intermediation" (5.2%) and “insurance, reinsurance and pension" (4.0%) and “other financial" (3.8%).
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(i)
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Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 3.8%, compared to the 3.9% growth observed in 2024.
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(j)
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Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to grow by 0.8% after a higher growth of 7.2% in 2024.
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(k)
| Arts, entertainment and recreation: to grow at a lower rate of 4.7%, same as in 2024.
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(l)
| Other service activities: to increase by 2.0%, same as in 2024.
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Consumption and Savings
5.
Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 2.6% in 2025 against 3.9% in 2024.
Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage of GDP at market prices for 2025would reach 17.2 from 16.3 in 2024.
Investment
6. Investment, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), would drop by 3.9 % in 2025, after a growth of 8.3% in 2024. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, it would contract by 3.2% compared to a growth of 8.6% in 2024.
7. Private sector investment is expected to decline by 3.3% in 2025 compared to the 10.2% growth in 2024 and
public sector investment would drop by 6.5% in 2025, after a growth of 0.2% in 2024.
8. Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices would decrease to 19.6% in 2025, from 21.0% in 2024. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 19.6% compared to 20.8% in 2024.
9. Private investment rate would decrease to 16.2% in 2025 from 17.2% in 2024 and
public investment rate would reach 3.4% in 2025, from 3.8% in 2024.
10.
The share of private sector investment in GFCF is expected to increase to 82.6% in 2025 from 82.1% in 2024, while that of
the public sector would decrease to 17.4% from 17.9% in 2024.
19 December 2025
