National Accounts Estimates (2019 – 2022) – December 2022 issue
Highlights
Year 2022
GDP growth rate
1. On the basis of information gathered on key sectors of the economy, performance observed in the first nine months of 2022 and taking into consideration policy measures announced in the budget 2022/2023:
-
- GDP at market prices in 2022 would grow by 7.8% instead of 7.2% as forecasted in September 2022;
-
- GVA at basic prices in 2022 would grow by 9.1%
instead of 8.5% as forecasted in September 2022.
-
2. Main contributors to the 9.1% growth in GVA at basic prices: “Accommodation and food service activities" (5.0 percentage points), “Manufacturing" (0.8 percentage point), “Financial and insurance activities" (0.5 percentage point), “Public administration and defence; compulsory social security" and “Human health and social work activities" each contributing 0.4 percentage point, and “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles" and “Professional, scientific and technical activities" each contributing 0.3 percentage point.
Consumption and Saving
3.
Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 4.0% in 2022 against the 2.1% growth in 2021.
Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage to GDP at market prices for 2022
would reach 12.6 from 9.7 in 2021.
Investment
4.
Investment, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), would grow by 6.3% in 2022, after a growth of 14.0% in 2021. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment would grow by 5.7% compared to the 14.8% growth in 2021.
5.
Private sector investment would grow by 7.9% in 2022 compared to the 18.4% growth in 2021 and
Public sector investment would grow by 0.5% in 2022 after the 0.1% growth registered in 2021.
6.
Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices would increase to 19.7% in 2022, from 19.6% in 2021. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 19.6%, same as in 2021.
7.
Private investment rate would increase to 15.8% in 2022 from 15.5% in 2021 and
public investment rate would decrease to 3.9% in 2022 from 4.1% in 2021.
8.
The share of private sector investment in GFCF would increase to 80.0% in 2022 from 78.9% in 2021, while that of
the public sector would decrease to 20.0% from 21.1% in 2021. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the share of private sector investment in 2022 would be 80.1% and that of the public sector, 19.9%.
Year 2023
9. After two years of the COVID-19 pandemic and as 2023 dawns, the Mauritian economy continues to remain subject to uncertainties tied to global pressures. The IMF has even warned over the risk of a global recession in 2023 amid persistent inflation, war-driven energy and food crises and higher interest rates. Mauritius will also weather the global economic storm in 2023 owing to its high dependence on energy and food imports, which make it vulnerable to the recent global price surges for these goods. Overall, the
economic recovery from the pandemic will continue in 2023 but at a lower rate considering the weak external economic outlook.
10. Against this backdrop, and based on past pre-pandemic trends, policy measures announced in the budget 2022/2023 and keeping in mind the target set by the authorities to achieve pre-pandemic figures in the tourism sector, both
GVA at basic prices and GDP at market prices are likely to grow by around 5% in 2023.
The main assumptions used to work out the forecast of 2023 are as follows:
-
a) Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to grow by around 4.0% based on a sugar production of about 235,000 tonnes same as in 2021 and an expected increase of 4.0% in non-sugarcane agricultural activities.
-
b) Manufacturing: to grow at a lower rate of 1.5% compared to 6.3% in 2022.
-
c) Construction: to record a 'no growth' against the 1.1% growth in 2022, assuming same level of investment as in 2022 by both public and private sectors.
-
d) Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by about 30.0% with tourist arrivals forecasted at 1.4 million in 2023 compared to around 1 million in 2022.
-
e) Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 3.7%, same as in 2022.
-
f) Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to grow by around 2.0%, assuming ongoing recruitment in the public sector.
-
g) Other sectors: growth rates based on past (pre-pandemic) trends.
December 2022
