National Accounts Estimates - September 2024 Issue
Highlights
Year 2023
1. Latest information on various sectors of the economy indicates that
GDP growth rate at market prices for 2023 was 7.0%, same as estimated in June 2024.
Year 2024
GDP growth rate
2. Based on information relating to public sector investment projects (road network, drain infrastructure, social housing, etc.), policy measures announced in the budget speech 2024/2025 and new information gathered on key sectors of the economy:
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GDP at market prices is forecasted to grow by 6.5% in 2024 after a growth of 7.0% in 2023 and
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GVA at basic prices is expected to grow by 6.5% in 2024, following a growth of 7.0% recorded in 2023
3. The main contributors to the 6.5% growth in GVA at basic prices would be:
“Construction" (3.3 percentage points), “Accommodation and food service activities" and “Financial and insurance activities" each contributing 0.6 percentage point, followed by “Manufacturing" and “Wholesale and retail trade" each contributing 0.4 percentage point.
4. The main assumptions used are as follows:
(a)
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Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to grow by 4.9% compared to an increase of 13.9% in 2023. Within the sector,
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(i) “Sugarcane": a local sugar production of 250,000 tonnes in 2024, resulting in a growth of 4.1% compared to a growth of 2.8% in 2023, and
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(ii) “Other agriculture": to grow by 5.0% compared to 15.2% in 2023.
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(b)
| Manufacturing: to grow at a rate of 3.3%, after a growth of 2.1% in 2023. The expected performances of its sub sectors are as follows:
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(i) “Sugar milling" to grow by 3.9% after a growth of 2.5% in 2023. This results from a combined effect of a sugar production of 250,000 tonnes and a lower import of 125,000 tonnes of sugar for refining compared to 132,395 tonnes imported in 2023;
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(ii) “Food processing" to grow by 3.1%, lower than the 4.2% growth in 2023;
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(iii) “Textile manufacturing", no growth after a contraction of 9.5% in 2023; and
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(iv) “Other manufacturing" to grow by 5.3%, lower than the 6.7% growth in 2023.
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Within the manufacturing sector, activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOEs) are expected to grow by 1.0%, after a drop of 11.2% in 2023.
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(c)
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Construction: to grow by 38.8% compared to 37.4% in 2023, based on ongoing and upcoming public sector projects (expansion of road network, implementation of drain infrastructure projects, construction of social housing units including infrastructural works and other public buildings) and private sector construction projects (BioTechnology Park, development of smart cities, land parcelling projects, property development scheme projects and construction/renovation of hotels).
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(d)
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Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow by 3.9%, higher than the growth of 3.6% in 2023
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(e)
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Transportation and storage: to grow at a lower rate of 4.8%, compared to 8.9% in 2023.
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(f)
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Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by 7.4%, based on expected tourist arrivals of around 1,400,000 in 2024, compared to 1,295,410 in 2023.
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(g)
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Information and communication: to grow by 6.6%, higher than the growth of 6.0% in 2023.
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(h)
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Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 4.8% compared to 4.3% in 2023. This would be due to expected growths in “monetary intermediation" (5.5%), “financial leasing and other credit granting" (4.5%) and “other financial" (3.6%).
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(i)
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Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 4.7%, higher than the 4.5% growth observed in 2023.
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(j)
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Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to grow at a higher rate of 2.4% after a contraction of 1.0% in 2023.
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(k)
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Arts, entertainment and recreation: to grow at a lower rate of 4.7% instead of 7.0% in 2023.
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Consumption and Saving
5. Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 2.8% in 2024 against 1.5% in 2023.
Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage of GDP at market prices for 2024would reach 22.3 from 19.7 in 2023.
Investment
6. Investment, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), would grow by 24.9% in 2024, after a growth of 30.7% in 2023. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, it would grow by 25.3% compared to 29.8% in 2023.
7. Private sector investment is expected to grow by 26.5% in 2024 compared to the 21.7% growth in 2023 and
public sector investment would grow by 20.0% in 2024, lower than the 66.6% growth in 2023.
8. Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices would increase to 27.8% in 2024, from 23.9% in 2023. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 27.6% compared to 23.6% in 2023.
9. Private investment rate would increase to 21.0% in 2024 from 17.8% in 2023 and
public investment rate would increase to 6.8% in 2024 from 6.1% in 2023.
10.
The share of private sector investment in GFCF is expected to increase to 75.5% in 2024 from 74.6% in 2023, while that of
the public sector would increase by 24.5% compared to 25.4% in 2023.
September 2024
