National Accounts Estimates - June 2024 Issue
Highlights
Year 2023
1. Latest information on various sectors of the economy indicates that
GDP growth rate at market prices for 2023 was 7.0%, same as estimated in March 2024.
Year 2024
GDP growth rate
2. On the basis of policy measures announced in the Budget 2024/2025, particularly those relating to public sector investment projects (road network, drain infrastructure, social housing, etc.) and taking into consideration that the number of tourist arrivals in 2024 will be close to the pre-pandemic level:
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- GDP at market prices is forecasted to grow by 6.5% in 2024 after a growth of 7.0% in 2023 and
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- GVA at basic prices is expected to grow by 6.5% in 2024, following a growth of 7.0% recorded in 2023
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3. The main contributors to the 6.5% growth in GVA at basic prices would be:
“Construction" (3.4 percentage points), “Accommodation and food service activities" and “Financial and insurance activities" each contributing 0.6 percentage point, “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles" and “Manufacturing" each contributing 0.4 percentage point followed by “Transportation and storage" (0.3 percentage point).
4. The main assumptions used are as follows:
a)
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Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to grow by 5.0% after a higher growth of 13.9% in 2023. Within the sector,
(i)
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“Sugarcane": a local sugar production of 250,000 tonnes, resulting in a further increase of 5.1% after a growth of 2.8% in 2023, and
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(ii)
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“Other agriculture": to grow by 5.0% following an increase of 15.3% in 2023.
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b)
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Manufacturing: to grow by 3.3%, higher than the 2.1% growth in 2023. The expected performances of its sub sectors are as follows:
(i)
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“Sugar milling" to grow by 3.8%, after a lower growth of 2.5% in 2023. This is due to the combined effect of a sugar production of 250,000 tonnes and the refining of 125,000 tonnes of imported raw sugar in 2024;
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(ii)
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“Food processing" to grow by 3.1%, following the higher growth of 4.3% in 2023;
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(iii)
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“Textile manufacturing" to register a no growth, after a decline of 9.5% in 2023;
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(iv)
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“Other manufacturing" to grow by 5.3% compared to a growth of 6.7% in 2023.
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c)
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Construction: to grow at a higher rate of 38.7% compared to 37.4% in 2023, based on ongoing and upcoming public sector projects (expansion of road network, implementation of drain infrastructure projects, construction of social housing units and other public buildings) and private sector construction projects (development of smart cities, land parcelling projects, property development scheme projects and construction/renovation of hotels).
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d)
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Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow by 3.8%, higher than the growth of 3.6% in 2023.
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e)
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Transportation and storage: to grow by 5.0% compared to 8.9% in 2023.
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f)
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Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by 7.4%, based on expected tourist arrivals of around 1,400,000 in 2024 compared to 1,295,410 in 2023.
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g)
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Information and communication:
to
grow by 5.0%, lower than the rate of 6.0% in 2023.
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h)
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Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 4.8% compared to 4.3% in 2023. This would be due to expected growths in “monetary intermediation" (5.5%), “insurance, reinsurance and pension" (4.9%) and “other financial" (3.5%).
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i)
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Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 4.7%, higher than the 4.5% growth observed in 2023.
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j)
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Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to grow at a rate of 2.1% after a decline of 0.9% in 2023.
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k)
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Arts, entertainment and recreation: to grow by 5.0%, lower than the 7.0% growth in 2023.
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Consumption and Saving
5. Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 2.8% in 2024 against 1.6% in 2023.
Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage of GDP at market prices for 2024would reach 21.5 from 19.3 in 2023.
Investment
6. Investment, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), would grow by 24.2% in 2024, after a growth of 30.7% in 2023. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, it would grow by 24.6% compared to 29.8% in 2023.
7. Private sector investment is expected to grow by 25.7% in 2024 compared to the 21.7% growth in 2023 and
public sector investment would grow by 19.8% in 2024, lower than the 66.6% growth in 2023.
8. Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices would increase to 28.0% in 2024, from 24.0% in 2023. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 27.8% compared to 23.8% in 2023.
9. Private investment rate would increase to 21.1% in 2024 from 17.9% in 2023 and
public investment rate would increase to 6.9% in 2024 from 6.1% in 2023.
10.
The share of private sector investment in GFCF is expected to increase to 75.5% in 2024 from 74.6% in 2023, while that of
the public sector would increase to 24.5% from 25.4% in 2023.
