National Accounts Estimates (2016-2019) - June 2019 Issue
Highlights
GDP growth rate
Year 2018
1.
GDP at market prices in 2018 grew by 3.8% and
GVA at basic prices by 3.6%, same as in 2017.
Year 2019
2.
Based on information gathered on key sectors of the economy,
performance observed in the first quarter of 2019 and taking into consideration policy measures announced in the budget 2019/2020:
·
GDP at market prices in 2019 would grow by 3.9%, same as forecasted in March 2019; and
·
GVA at basic prices in 2019 would grow by 3.6%, same as forecasted in March 2019.
3.
Main contributors to the 3.6% growth in GVA at basic prices would be:
“Financial and insurance activities” (0.6 percentage point), and “Construction” and “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” each contributing 0.4 percentage point.
4.
The main assumptions used are as follows:
a)
Sugarcane: a sugar production of 325,000 tonnes compared to 323,406
tonnes in 2018, resulting in a growth of 0.5% compared to a drop of 9.1% in 2018.
b)
Other agriculture: to grow by 2.7% compared to 0.4% in 2018.
c)
Manufacturing: to
grow at a rate of
1.1%, after a growth of 0.7% in 2018, assuming a growth of 2.0% in both ‘food processing’ and ‘other manufacturing’.
d)
Construction: to grow by 8.5%, lower than the 9.5% growth in 2018, assuming timely implementation of major public investment projects.
e)
Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow at a lower rate of 3.4% compared to 3.6% in 2018.
f)
Transportation and storage: to grow by 3.2%, lower than the 3.5% growth in 2018.
g)
Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by
2.5% compared to 4.1% in 2018, based on expected tourist arrivals of
1,435,000.
h)
Information and communication: to grow by 5.4%,
lower than the 5.5% growth in 2018.
i)
Financial and insurance activities: to grow by around 5.2%, lower than the 5.4% growth in 2018.
j)
Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 4.9%, lower than the 5.1% growth observed
in 2018.
k)
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to grow by 3.2% compared to 1.8% in 2018.
Consumption and Saving
5.
Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 3.1% in 2019 compared to 3.5% in 2018.
6.
Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage to GDP at market prices for 2019 would be 9.5 compared to 9.0 in 2018.
Investment (GFCF)
7.
Investment would grow by 6.6% in 2019, after a growth of 10.9% in 2018, explained by a lower growth in private sector investment and a higher growth in public sector investment. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment would grow by 6.3% compared to 12.2% in 2018.
Private sector investment is expected to grow by 0.1% in 2019 compared to the 10.4% growth in 2018 and
public sector investment would expand by 26.7% in 2019, after a growth of 12.7% in 2018.
8.
Investment rate would increase to 19.3% in 2019, from 18.7% in 2018.
Private investment rate would decrease to 13.8% from 14.2% in 2018 while
public investment rate would increase to 5.6% from 4.5% in 2018.
9.
The share of private sector investment in GFCF is expected to drop to 71.2% in 2019 from 75.8% in 2018 while that of the
public sector would increase to 28.8% from 24.2% in 2018. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the share of private sector investment in 2019 would be 71.4% and that of the public sector, 28.6%.
June 2019
