National Accounts Estimates - Mar 2024

Highlights​​​

Year 2023

GDP growth rate

1. Based on data available for all four quarters of 2023, GDP at market prices in 2023 grew by 7.0%, slightly lower than the 7.1% growth estimated in December 2023. Latest information available on various sectors of the economy also shows that GVA at basic prices in 2023 grew by 7.0% same as estimated in December 2023.

2.   The main changes noted at industry level compared to estimates made in December 2023 are:

1. (i)Agriculture, forestry and fishing: a growth of 13.6% instead of 10.4%, due to increases in “Sugarcane" (2.8% instead of -1.6%) and “other agriculture" (14.9% instead of 11.8%).
2. (ii)Manufacturing: a higher growth rate (2.1% instead of 1.4%), mainly explained by improved performances observed in “food processing" (4.3% instead of 4.0%) and “other manufacturing" (6.7% instead of 6.0%).
3. (iii)Construction: grew by 37.4% instead of 28.6% based on updated data available on construction projects.
4. (iv)Accommodation and food service activities: a growth of 26.8% instead of 31.0%, mostly attributed to a lower tourist arrivals of 1,295,410 instead of 1,350,000.
5. (v)Financial and insurance activities: a lower growth (4.3% instead of 4.8%), mostly attributed to a lower performance of “monetary intermediation" (4.9% instead of 5.5%).
6. (vi)Public administration and defence; compulsory social securities: declined by 1.0% instead of a growth of 0.9%, resulting from a lower than expected number of new recruits in the public sector.
    

Consumption and Saving

3.   Final consumption expenditure of households and general government grew by 1.5% in 2023 against the 3.9% growth in 2022. Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage to GDP at market prices for 2023 reached 18.2 from 13.9 in 2022.
 

Investment

4.   Investment, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), grew by 30.9% in 2023, after a growth of 7.8% in 2022. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment grew by 29.9% compared to 7.2% in 2022.

5.   Private sector investment grew by 20.3% in 2023 compared to the 9.6% growth in 2022 and Public sector investment grew by 73.5% in 2023, against 1.1% growth in 2022.  

6.   Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices increased to 23.5% in 2023, from 19.7% in 2022. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate was 23.3% in 2023, compared to 19.7% in 2022. 

7.   Private investment rate increased to 17.3% in 2023 from 15.8% in 2022 and public investment rate increased to 6.2% in 2023 from 3.9% in 2022. 

8.   The share of private sector investment in GFCF decreased to 73.7% in 2023 from 80.1% in 2022, while that of the public sector increased to 26.3% from 19.9% in 2022.
 

Year 2024

9.   Based on past trends and latest information available, both GDP at market prices and GVA at basic prices are forecasted to grow by 4.9% in 2024. 

The main assumptions used to work out the forecast of 2024 are as follows:

1. a)Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to grow by 4.5% based on a local sugar production same as 2023 and an expected increase of 5.0% in non-sugarcane agricultural activities.
2. b)Manufacturing: to grow at a higher rate of 3.9% compared to 2.1% in 2023.
3. c)Construction: to grow at a lower rate of 18.1% compared to 37.4% in 2023, based on ongoing and upcoming public projects (road infrastructure projects, drain projects, construction of low-cost housing and other public buildings) and private construction projects (smart city projects, morcellement projects, property development scheme projects and renovation of hotels).
4. d)Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by 7.4% with tourist arrivals forecasted at around 1.4 million in 2024 compared to 1,295,410 in 2023.
5. e)Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 4.4%, compared to 4.3% in 2023.
6. f)Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to increase by 2.0% following a decrease of 1.0% in 2023.

10. Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 2.5% in 2024 compared to 1.5% in 2023. GDS as a percentage of GDP at market prices would be 19.0 against 18.2 in 2023.

​11. Investment is expected to grow by 12.0% compared to 30.9% in 2023. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, it would grow by 12.9% compared to 29.9% in 2023. Investment rate would attain 25.0% in 2024 from 23.5% in 2023.

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