1. Throughout the period 2009 to 2012, the quarterly GDP follows the same seasonal pattern every year. The production is relatively low in the first quarter, increases gradually in the two subsequent quarters and peaks in the last quarter before declining in the first quarter of the following year.
Quarterly growth rate by industry group
(i) Growth rates (year-on-year), Q4 2012
2. GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2012 over the corresponding quarter of 2011 has been worked out to 3.5%, higher than the growth of 3.2% estimated in March 2013.
(ii) Growth rates (year-on-year), Q1 2013
3. GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2013 over the corresponding quarter of 2012 is estimated at 3.7%. The main contributors to the 3.7% growth in GDP during the first quarter of 2013 were “Manufacturing” contributing 0.7 percentage point, “Financial and insurance activities” contributing 0.5 percentage point, and “Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles”, “Information and communication” and “Professional, scientific and technical activities” each contributing 0.4 percentage point.
Growth rates (year-on-year) of components of expenditure, Q1 2013
4. Total final consumption expenditure registered a growth of 2.4% in the first quarter of 2013, lower than the 3.4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 (Table 4). The final consumption expenditure of households grew by 2.3% compared to 3.2% in the previous quarter while that of general government grew by 3.0% following a growth of 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2012.
5. Investment continued in its declining trend noted since the third quarter of 2013 by registering a negative growth of 3.4% in the first quarter of 2013 after a decline of 13.8% in the last quarter of 2012. The decline of 3.4% is the combined result of declines of 0.8% and 7.5% in “Building and construction work” and “Machinery and equipment” respectively.
6. Both exports and imports of goods and services recorded negative growths during the first quarter of 2013. Exports of goods and services declined by 5.3% in the first quarter of 2013 as opposed to a growth of 1.2% noted for the previous quarter. The contraction of 5.3% is explained by a decline of 11.0% in exports of services partly offset by a growth of 3.3% in exports of goods.
7. Imports of goods and services declined further by 2.0% in the first quarter of 2013 after the decrease of 0.9% in the last quarter of 2012. The decline of 2.0% was attributable to a decrease of 3.2% in imports of goods partly offset by a growth of 0.4% in imports of services.
Quarter to quarter GDP growth (based on seasonally adjusted GDP)
8. Quarter to quarter GDP growth rates based on seasonally adjusted data show that the economy grew by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2013 after registering a growth of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2012.