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Statistics Mauritius (under the aegis of the Ministry of Finance & Economic Development)
Statistics Mauritius>Statistics by Subject>National Accounts Estimates (2010 - 2013) – June 2013 issue

National Accounts Estimates (2010 - 2013) – June 2013 issue

Highlights
Year 2012
 
GDP growth rate
 
1.     Latest information gathered on the various sectors of the economy indicates that GDP growth for 2012 was 3.3% same as estimated in March 2013.  However, some changes were noted at industry level and the main changes are:
(i)           Manufacturing: a higher growth of 2.2% compared to 1.5%. Within the sector, “food processing” grew by 7.6% instead of 6.6% and “other manufacturing” registered no growth instead of a decline of -1.4%.
(ii)          Information and communication: a lower growth of 8.6% instead of 9.0%.
(iii)         Arts, entertainment and recreation: a lower growth of 8.5% instead of 8.8%.
 
Year 2013
 
GDP growth rate
2.     On the basis of information gathered on key sectors of the economy and performance of the first quarter, GDP is forecasted to grow by 3.3%, lower than the 3.5% forecasted in March 2013.
 
3.     Exclusive of sugar, the growth rate would be 3.4% compared to 3.7% forecasted earlier.
 
4.     The main assumptions used for the forecast of 3.3% growth in 2013 are:
(i)         Sugarcane: sugar production forecasted at around 425,000 tonnes of refined and special sugars, resulting in a growth of 3.2% compared to a decline of -7.3% in 2012.
(ii)        Manufacturing: to expand by 2.1%, slightly lower than the 2.2% growth in 2012. Within the sector,
a.       “Sugar milling” would grow by 3.2% after a contraction of -6.3% in 2012;
b.      “Food processing” would grow by 2.2% compared to 7.6% in 2012. The positive growth would be mainly due to a new fish processing plant due to start in the second semester of 2013;
c.       “Textile manufacturing” would grow at a rate of 2.0% based on the performance of the first quarter of 2013, compared to a decline of -1.1% in 2012; and
d.      “Other manufacturing” to expand by 2.0% after stagnating in 2012.
Activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOE) are expected to grow by 2.6%, higher than the 1.4% growth registered in 2012.
(iii)       Construction: to decline further by -7.7% after the contraction of -3.0% in 2012, mostly explained by completion of major projects such as airport extension and shopping complex in 2012 coupled with rescheduling of road decongestion projects.
(iv)       Accommodation and food service activities: a growth of around 2.5% based on a forecast of 990,000 tourist arrivals in 2013 compared to 965,441 in 2012. Tourist earnings are forecasted at  R 46.1 billion compared to R 44.4 billion in 2012.
(v)        Information and communication: to expand by 8.2%, lower than 8.6% in 2012.
(vi)       Financial and insurance activities: to grow at a lower rate of 5.5% compared to the growth of 5.7% in 2012.
Consumption and Saving
5.     Final consumption expenditure of households and government is expected to grow by 2.8%, same as in 2012.  Saving rate defined as the ratio of GNS to GDP at market prices, would reach 14.8% lower than the figure of 15.1% in 2012.
 
Investment
6.     Total investment would continue to decline and is expected to contract by -0.1% in 2013 after the -0.8% fall in 2012.  However, exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, a drop of -3.1% is expected compared to -0.8% in 2012.
7.     Private sector investment is expected to rebound by 1.9% in 2013 after the negative growth of -1.9% in 2012. The positive growth would be mainly due to investment in marine vessels and a new fish processing
 
plant. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, investment would decline by -1.3% compared to -1.9% in 2012.
8.     Public sector investment is expected to contract by -6.4% in 2013 after a rebound of 2.9% in 2012. This decline would be mainly explained by completion of major projects such as airport extension, coupled with rescheduling of major road decongestion projects. Excluding aircraft and marine vessels, a decline of
9.     -8.8% would be observed compared to a growth of 2.9% in 2012.
10.  Investment rate, defined as the ratio of investment to GDP at market prices would be 22.2% lower than the figure of 23.0% in 2012. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, the rate would be 21.5% compared to 23.0% in 2012.
11.  Private investment rate would decrease to 17.2% from 17.5% in 2012 and that of public investment rate to 5.0% from 5.5%. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, private investment rate in 2013 would be 16.7% and that of public 4.9%.
12.  The share of the private sector in total investment is expected to increase to 77.5% from 76.0% in 2012 while that of the public sector would decrease to 22.5% from 24.0%. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the share of private sector investment in 2013 would be 77.4% and that of the public sector 22.6%.
 
June 2013
 
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