Quarterly National Accounts – Fourth Quarter 2014
1. Throughout the period 2011 to 2014, the quarterly GDP follows almost the same seasonal pattern every year. The production is relatively low in the first quarter, increases gradually in the two subsequent quarters and peaks in the last quarter before declining in the first quarter of the following year.
Quarterly growth rate by industry group
(i) Third quarter 2014 over third quarter 2013
2. GDP growth for the third quarter of 2014 over the corresponding quarter of 2013 has been revised slightly upward to 3.6% from 3.5% estimated in December 2014.
(ii) Fourth quarter 2014 over fourth quarter 2013
3. GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2014 over the corresponding quarter of 2013 is estimated at 3.7%. This is mainly due to: “Manufacturing” contributing 0.7 percentage point, “Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” and “Financial and insurance activities”, each “contributing 0.5 percentage point, and “Public administration and defence; compulsory social security” contributing 0.4 percentage point, partly offset by “Construction” with a negative contribution of 0.5 percentage point.
Quarterly growth rates of components of expenditure
4. Total final consumption expenditure in real terms increased by 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2014, higher than the 3.2% growth in the third quarter of 2014. Final consumption expenditure of households grew by 2.9% compared to 3.1% in the previous quarter while that of general government grew by 5.9% compared to a growth of 3.5% in the third quarter of 2014
5. Investment contracted further by 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2014 after the decline of 11.4% in the third quarter of 2014. The contraction of 4.2% was due to a decline of 7.1% in “Building and construction work” and a slight growth of 0.3% in “Machinery and equipment”.
6. Positive growths were noted in both exports and imports of goods and services during the fourth quarter of 2014. Exports of goods and services grew by 1.6% in the fourth quarter following the growth of 14.0% registered in the third quarter while imports of goods and services grew by 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2014 following the growth of 7.2% noted for the third quarter.
Quarter to quarter GDP growth (based on seasonally adjusted GDP)
7. Quarter to quarter GDP/GVA growth rates based on seasonally adjusted data show that the economy grew at the rate of 0.6% in fourth quarter of 2014, same as in the third quarter.