Quarterly National Accounts – First Quarter 2015
1. Throughout the period 2011 to 2014, the quarterly GDP follows almost the same seasonal pattern every year. The production is relatively low in the first quarter, increases gradually in the two subsequent quarters and peaks in the last quarter before declining in the first quarter of the following year.
Quarterly growth rate by industry group
(i) Fourth quarter 2014 over fourth quarter 2013
2. GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2014 over the corresponding quarter of 2013 is maintained at 3.7%, as estimated in March 2015.
(ii) First quarter 2015 over first quarter 2014
3. GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2015 over the corresponding quarter of 2014 is estimated at 3.7%. This growth is mainly due to: “Accommodation and food service activities” contributing 0.9 percentage point, “Financial and insurance activities” contributing 0.6 percentage point, “Manufacturing”, “Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles”, “Information and communication” and “Professional, scientific and technical activities", each contributing 0.3 percentage point, partly offset by “Construction” with a negative contribution of 0.4 percentage point.
Quarterly growth rates of components of expenditure
4. Total final consumption expenditure in real terms increased by 2.5% in the first quarter of 2015, lower than the 3.3% growth in the fourth quarter of 2014. Final consumption expenditure of households grew by 2.8% compared to 2.9% in the previous quarter while that of general government grew by 0.9% after a high growth of 5.9% in the fourth quarter of 2014.
5. Investment picked up slightly by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015 after the declines observed across all four quarters of 2014. The growth of 0.2% is explained by a growth of 13.2% in “Machinery and equipment”, partly offset by a decline of 6.2% in “Building and construction work.
6. Both exports and imports of goods and services registered high positive growths during the first quarter of 2015. Exports of goods and services grew by 16.4% after a growth of 6.8% noted in the fourth quarter of 2014 while imports of goods and services grew by 15.3% in the first quarter of 2015 compared to a growth of 11.9% in the previous quarter.
Quarter to quarter GDP growth (based on seasonally adjusted GDP)
7. Quarter to quarter GDP/GVA growth rates based on seasonally adjusted data show that the economy improved by 0.7% in first quarter of 2015 compared to 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2014.