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Statistics Mauritius (under the aegis of the Ministry of Finance & Economic Development)
Statistics Mauritius>Statistics by Subject>National Accounts September 2015

National Accounts September 2015

National Accounts Estimates (2012 – 2015) – September 2015 issue
Highlights
 
Year 2014
 
1.     GDP/GVA at basic prices grew by 3.5% in 2014, compared to 3.2% in 2013.  Exclusive of sugar, the growth rate worked out to 3.5%.
 
Year 2015
 
2.     Based on information gathered on key sectors of the economy, the growth of GDP/GVA at basic prices is revised downward to 3.6% from 3.8% as forecasted in June 2015.
 
3.     Exclusive of sugar, the growth would be 3.6% compared to previous forecast of 3.8%.
 
The main assumptions used for the forecast of 3.6% growth in 2015 are:
(i)         Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to expand by 2.7%, compared to the 3.9% growth in 2014. Within the sector,
a.   Sugarcane”: A sugar production of around 410,000 tonnes of refined and special sugars, resulting in a growth of 1.9% after a contraction of -1.7% in 2014, and
b.    “Other Agriculture”: to grow by 3.0% compared to 6.5% in 2014.
(ii)        Manufacturing: to grow by 1.9%, lower than 2.2% in 2014. Within the sector,
a.       “Sugar milling” to grow by around 2.0%, higher than the growth of 0.6% in 2014. This expansion is based on a sugar production of 410,000 tonnes compared to 400,173 tonnes in 2014;
b.      “Food processing” to expand by 3.4% compared to 2.6% in 2014; mainly due to higher growth in fish processing;
c.       “Textile manufacturing” to grow by 0.5%, lower than the 1.0% growth in 2014; and
d.      “Other manufacturing” to grow by 1.6%, lower than the 3.0% in 2014.
Activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOE) are expected to grow by 1.9%, higher than the growth of 0.8% recorded in 2014.
(iii)       Construction: to decline by -2.6% after the contraction of -8.5% in 2014, mainly explained by delays in major private construction projects.
(iv)       Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow by 3.0% compared to 3.2% in 2014.
(v)        Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by around 6.5%, based on a forecast of around 1,115,000 tourist arrivals in 2015 compared to 1,038,968 in 2014.
(vi)       Information and communication: to grow by 7.0%, higher than the growth of 6.4% in 2014.
(vii)      Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 5.2% in 2015, lower than the 5.4% growth observed in 2014.
(viii)     Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: To expand by 3.5% compared to 5.6% in 2014.
Consumption and Saving
4.     Final consumption expenditure of households and general government is expected to grow by 3.0%, slightly higher than the 2.9% in 2014.  Gross Domestic Savings as a percentage of GDP at market prices would be 11.9 compared to 11.6 in 2014.
Investment
5.     Total investment would contract by a further -0.5% in 2015 after the contraction of -6.0% in 2014.  However, exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, investment would grow by 2.1% after a decline of -5.3% in 2014.
(i)         Private sector investment is expected to fall by -3.9% in 2015, after the negative growth of -8.4% in 2014. 
(ii)        Public sector investment would expand by 9.5% in 2015 compared to 1.8% in 2014. Excluding aircraft and marine vessels, public sector investment is expected to rebound by 21.9% in 2015 after a contraction of -8.8% in 2014.
(iii)       Investment rate, defined as the ratio of investment to GDP at market prices, would decrease to 18.5% in 2015, from 19.1% in 2014. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, the rate would be 18.4% compared to 18.6% in 2014.
(iv)       Private investment rate would decrease to 13.3% in 2015 from 14.2% in 2014 while public investment rate would increase to 5.2% in 2015 from 4.9% in 2014.
(v)        The share of the private sector in total investment is expected to decrease to 71.8% in 2015 from 74.4% in 2014 while that of the public sector would increase to 28.2% from 25.6%. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, the share of private sector investment in 2015 would be 71.9% and that of the public sector 28.1%.
 
September 2015