National Accounts Estimates (2011 - 2014) – September 2014 issue
1. GDP at basic prices grew by 3.2%, compared to 3.4% in 2012. Exclusive of sugar the rate worked out to 3.3% compared to 3.5% in 2012.
2. On the basis of information gathered on key sectors of the economy, GDP at basic prices in 2014 is forecasted to grow by 3.5%, same as forecasted in June 2014.
3. The main assumptions used for the GDP forecast in 2014 are:
(i) Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to expand by 6.4% compared to 0.4% in 2013, mainly due to increase in “Fishing activities”.
(ii) Manufacturing: to grow by 1.9%, lower than the 4.4% growth in 2013. Within the sector,
a. “Sugar milling” to recover by 3.8% after a contraction of -1.0% in 2013. The growth would be due to a local sugar production of 415,000 tonnes and the refining of 50,000 tonnes of imported raw sugar. In 2013 the local sugar production was 404,713 tonnes and 25,000 tonnes of raw sugar was imported for refining;
b. “Food processing” to expand by 2.8%, taking into account the increase in fish processing activities, compared to the negative growth of -0.3% in 2013;
c. “Textile manufacturing” to grow at a rate of 1.5% based on exports for the first semester of 2014, compared to the 2.6% growth observed in 2013; and
d. “Other manufacturing” to grow at a lower rate of 1.0%, after the double digit growth of 12.7% in 2013.
Activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOE) are expected to rebound by 1.9%, compared to the decline of -3.0% in 2013.
(iii) Construction: to decline by -6.7% after the contraction of -9.4% in 2013, mainly explained by a drop in major private construction projects.
(iv) Accommodation and food service activities: a growth of around 3.5% based on a forecast of 1,030,000 tourist arrivals in 2014, compared to 993,106 in 2013. Tourist earnings are forecasted at R 44.5 billion compared to R 40.6 billion in 2013.
(v) Information and communication: a growth of 6.5%, lower than the 6.9% in 2013.
(vi) Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 5.4% in 2014, same rate as in 2013.
Consumption and Saving
4. Final consumption expenditure of households and government is expected to grow by 2.7%, higher than the 2.3% in 2013. Gross Domestic Saving (GDS) as a percentage of GDP at market prices for 2014 would be 11.6 compared to 11.8 in 2013.
5. Total investment would drop by -1.0% in 2014 after the -3.3% fall in 2013. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, a drop of -2.5% is expected compared to -6.7% in 2013.
(i) Private sector investment is expected to dip by -4.3% in 2014 after the negative growth of -2.8% in 2013. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, investment would decline by -1.6% compared to -7.2% in 2013.
(ii) Public sector investment is expected to rebound by 9.5% in 2014 after a contraction of -4.9% in 2013. The positive growth of 9.5% would be mainly due to investment in Berth extension at Mauritius Container Terminal, Bagatelle Dam and acquisition of a patrol vessel. However, exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, a decline of -5.1% would be observed in 2014.
(iii) Investment rate, defined as the ratio of investment to GDP at market prices would be 20.4% in 2014, lower than the figure of 21.2% in 2013. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, the rate would be 19.4% compared to 20.5% in 2013.
(iv) Private investment rate would decrease to 15.0% from 16.2% in 2013 while public investment rate would increase to 5.3% from 5.0%.
(v) The share of the private sector in total investment is expected to decrease to 73.8% from 76.4% in 2013 while that of the public sector would increase to 26.2% from 23.6%.