National Accounts Estimates (2012 – 2015) – March 2015 issue
1. GDP/GVA at basic prices grew by 3.5% in 2014, same as estimated in December 2014. Exclusive of sugar, the growth rate worked out to 3.5%.
2. However, changes were noted at industry level as follows:
(i) Manufacturing: growth of 2.2% instead of 2.1% mainly due to better performance observed in “Other manufacturing”, and
(ii) Construction: a sharper decline of -8.5% instead of -6.7%.
3. On the basis of information gathered on key sectors of the economy, past trends, and measures announced in the budget, GDP/GVA at basic prices is forecasted to grow by around 4.1% in 2015, higher than the 3.5% growth in 2014. Exclusive of sugar, the growth rate would also be 4.1%
The main assumptions used for the forecast of 4.1% growth in 2015 are:
(i) Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to expand by 6.1%, higher than the 3.9% growth in 2014. Within the sector,
a. “Sugarcane”: A sugar production of around 410,000 tonnes of refined and special sugars, resulting in a growth of 1.9% compared to -1.7% in 2014, and
b. “Other Agriculture”: to expand by 7.5% mainly due to expected increase in “Fishing activities” compared to 6.5% in 2014.
(ii) Manufacturing: to expand by 2.5%, higher than the 2.2% in 2014. Within the sector,
a. “Sugar milling” to grow by around 2.0%, higher than the growth of 0.6% in 2014. The 2.0% growth would be due to a local sugar production of 410,000 tonnes compared to 400,173 tonnes in 2014;
b. “Food processing” to expand by 2.5%;
c. “Textile manufacturing” to grow at a rate of 2.0%, higher than the 1.0% growth observed in 2014; and
d. “Other manufacturing” to expand by 3.0%.
Activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOE) are expected to grow by 1.7%, higher than the growth of 0.3% recorded in 2014.
(iii) Construction: to rebound by 3.3 % after four consecutive years’ contraction. The positive growth would be due to ongoing public projects (such as berth extension and strengthening of the Mauritius Container Terminal and Bagatelle Dam), major public and private investment projects announced in the budget (such as Bagatelle water treatment and associated works, road improvement and upgrading, land drainage, replacement of water pipes, air and sea transport infrastructure at Agalega, IRS/RES and other private megaprojects).
(iv) Accommodation and food service activities: a growth of around 5.4% based on a forecast of around 1,100,000 tourist arrivals in 2015 compared to 1,038,968 in 2014, and tourist earnings forecast of R 48.5 billion against R 44.3 billion in 2014.
(v) Information and communication: a growth of 7.0%, higher than the 6.4% in 2014.
(vi) Financial and insurance activities: a growth of 5.4% in 2015, same as in 2014.
Consumption and Saving
4. Final consumption expenditure of households and government is expected to grow by 3.2%, higher than the 2.9% in 2014. Gross Domestic Savings as a percentage of GDP at market prices would be 11.8 compared to 11.5 in 2014.