National Accounts Estimates (2012 – 2015) – June 2015 issue
1. GDP/GVA at basic prices grew by 3.5% in 2014, compared to 3.2% in 2013. Exclusive of sugar, the growth rate worked out to 3.5%.
2. Based on information gathered on key sectors of the economy, the growth of GDP/GVA at basic prices is revised downward to 3.8% from 4.1% as forecasted in March 2015.
3. Exclusive of sugar, the growth would be 3.8% compared to previous forecast of 4.1%.
The main assumptions used for the forecast of 3.8% growth in 2015 are:
(i) Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to expand by 3.6%, compared to the 3.9% growth in 2014. Within the sector,
a. “Sugarcane”: A sugar production of around 410,000 tonnes of refined and special sugars, resulting in a growth of 1.9% after a contraction of -1.7% in 2014, and
b. “Other Agriculture”: to grow by 4.2% compared to 6.5% in 2014.
(ii) Manufacturing: to grow by 1.9%, lower than the 2.2% in 2014. Within the sector,
a. “Sugar milling” to grow by around 2.0%, higher than the growth of 0.6% in 2014. This expansion is based on a sugar production of 410,000 tonnes compared to 400,173 tonnes in 2014;
b. “Food processing” to expand by 3.0% compared to 2.6% in 2014;
c. “Textile manufacturing” to grow by 1.0%, same as in 2014; and
d. “Other manufacturing” is expected to grow by 1.3%, lower than the 3.0% in 2014.
Activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOE) are expected to grow by 1.7%, higher than the growth of 0.8% recorded in 2014.
(iii) Construction: to recover by 1.4% after four consecutive years’ contraction. The positive growth would be due to ongoing private and public projects (berth extension and strengthening at Mauritius Container Terminal and Bagatelle Dam) and new public projects announced in the budget (such as Bagatelle water treatment and associated works, road improvement and upgrading, land drainage and replacement of water pipes).
(iv) Accommodation and food service activities: a growth of around 5.4% based on a forecast of around 1,100,000 tourist arrivals in 2015 compared to 1,038,968 in 2014, and tourist earnings forecast of R 48.5 billion against R 44.3 billion in 2014.
(v) Information and communication: a growth of 7.0%, higher than the 6.4% in 2014.
(vi) Financial and insurance activities: a growth of 5.3% in 2015, slightly lower than the 5.4% growth observed in 2014.
Consumption and Saving
4. Final consumption expenditure of households and government is expected to grow by 3.2%, higher than the 2.9% in 2014. Gross Domestic Savings as a percentage of GDP at market prices would be 12.2 compared to 11.5 in 2014.
5. Total investment would rebound by 5.2% in 2015 after several years of contraction. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, investment would grow by 7.0% after a decline of -5.3% in 2014.
(i) Private sector investment is expected to fall by -0.1% in 2015, after the negative growth of -8.4% in 2014.
(ii) Public sector investment would expand by 20.5% in 2015 compared to 1.8% in 2014. Excluding aircraft and marine vessels, public sector investment is expected to rebound by 30.4% in 2015 after a contraction of -8.8% in 2014.
(iii) Investment rate, defined as the ratio of investment to GDP at market prices would increase to 19.5% in 2015, from 19.2% in 2014. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, the rate would be 19.3% compared to 18.6% in 2014.
(iv) Private investment rate would decrease to 13.7% in 2015 from 14.3% in 2014 while public investment rate would increase to 5.7% in 2015 from 4.9% in 2014.
(v) The share of the private sector in total investment is expected to decrease to 70.7% in 2015 from 74.4% in 2014 while that of the public sector would increase to 29.3% from 25.6%. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, the share of private sector investment in 2015 would be 71.4% and that of the public sector 28.6%.