GDP growth rate
1. Based on information gathered on the various sectors of the economy, GDP growth for 2012 is revised slightly upwards to 3.4% from 3.3% estimated previously.
GDP growth rate
2. On the basis of information gathered on key sectors of the economy, GDP growth rate is expected to be 3.2%, slightly lower than the 3.3% forecasted in June 2013.
3. Exclusive of sugar, the growth rate would be 3.3% compared to 3.4% forecasted earlier.
4. The main assumptions used for the forecast of 3.2% growth in 2013 are:
(i) Sugarcane: sugar production is forecasted at around 420,000 tonnes comprising refined and special sugars, resulting in a growth of 2.0% compared to a decline of -7.3% in 2012.
(ii) Manufacturing: to expand by 2.7%, higher than the 2.2% growth in 2012. Within the sector,
a. “Sugar milling” would grow by 2.3% after a contraction of -6.3% in 2012.
b. “Food processing” would grow by 1.2% compared to 7.6% in 2012. The positive growth would be mainly due to a new fish processing plant due to start in the second semester of 2013.
c. “Textile manufacturing” would grow at a rate of 2.0% based on the performance of the first semester of 2013, compared to a decline of -1.1% in 2012.
d. “Other manufacturing” to expand by 5.5% after stagnating in 2012. The high expected growth is mainly due to the observed better performance of the Non EOE sector, in the first semester of 2013.
Activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOE) are expected to grow by 0.8%, lower than the 1.4% growth registered in 2012.
(iii) Construction: to decline further by -9.4% after the contraction of -3.0% in 2012, mostly explained by completion of major projects such as airport extension and shopping complex in 2012 coupled with delays in some major private construction projects.
(iv) Accommodation and food service activities: a growth of 2.5% based on a forecast of 990,000 tourist arrivals in 2013 compared to 965,441 in 2012. Tourist earnings are forecasted at R 45.1 billion compared to R 44.4 billion in 2012.
(v) Information and communication: to expand by 7.7%, lower than 8.6% in 2012.
(vi) Financial and insurance activities: to grow at a lower rate of 5.3% compared to the growth of 5.7% in 2012.
Consumption and Saving
5. Final consumption expenditure of households and government is expected to grow by 2.6%, lower than the figure of 2.8% in 2012. Saving rate defined as the ratio of GNS to GDP at market prices, would reach 14.2%, lower than the figure of 15.1% in 2012.
6. Total investment would continue to decline and is expected to contract by -3.1% in 2013 after the -0.8% fall in 2012. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, a drop of -5.7% is expected compared to -0.8% in 2012.
7. Private sector investment is expected to contract further to -2.8% in 2013 after the negative growth of -1.9% in 2012. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, private investment would decline by -6.1% compared to -1.9% in 2012.
8. Public sector investment is expected to decline by -4.1% in 2013 after a rebound of 2.9% in 2012. Excluding aircraft and marine vessels, a fall of -4.2% would be observed compared to a growth of 2.9% in 2012.
9. Investment rate, defined as the ratio of investment to GDP at market prices would continue to drop to 21.2% compared to 23.0% in 2012. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, the rate would be 20.6% compared to 23.0% in 2012.
10. Private investment rate would decrease to 16.1% from 17.5% in 2012 and that of public investment rate to 5.0% from 5.5%. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, private investment rate in 2013 would be 15.6% and that of public 5.0%.
The share of the private sector in total investment is expected to increase to 76.3% from 76.0% in 2012 while that of the public sector would decrease to 23.7% from 24.0%. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, the share of private sector investment in 2013 would be 75.7% and that of the public sector 24.3%.