1. Throughout the period 2016 to 2019, the quarterly GDP followed almost the same seasonal pattern each year. Production is relatively low in the first quarter, increases gradually in the two subsequent quarters and peaks in the last quarter before declining in the first quarter of the following year.
Year on year growth rates
2. Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate for 2019 is estimated at 3.1%, compared to 3.6% achieved in 2018.
3. GVA growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2019 over the corresponding quarter of 2018 is estimated at 2.8%. The growth is mainly due to:
a) “Financial and insurance activities” contributing 0.6 percentage point;
b) “Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” contributing 0.5 percentage point; and
c) “Construction” contributing 0.4 percentage point.
Quarterly growth rates of components of expenditure
4. Total final consumption expenditure in real terms increased by 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared to 3.3% observed in the corresponding quarter of 2018. Final consumption expenditure of households grew by 3.2% while that of general government registered a growth of 3.1%.
5. Investment (Gross fixed capital formation) grew by 4.3% after that of 10.8% observed in the third quarter of 2019. The 4.3% growth resulted from growths in “Building and construction work” (8.2%), partly offset by a contraction in “Machinery and equipment” (2.5%).
6. Exports of goods and services further contracted by 5.9% after that of 3.3% in the previous quarter. The contraction is due to a decline of 18.2% in exports of goods, partly offset by an increase of 2.8% in export of services.
Quarter to quarter GVA growth (based on seasonally adjusted GVA)
7. Based on seasonally adjusted data, quarter to quarter GVA registered a growth of 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared to no growth in the previous quarter.