1. Throughout the period 2015 to 2018, the quarterly GDP followed almost the same seasonal pattern each year. Production is relatively low in the first quarter, increases gradually in the two subsequent quarters and peaks in the last quarter before declining in the first quarter of the following year.
Quarterly growth rate by industry group (fourth quarter 2018 over fourth quarter 2017)
2. GVA growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2018 over the corresponding quarter of 2017 is estimated at 4.1%. The growth was mainly due to:
(i) “Financial and insurance activities” contributing 0.6 percentage point;
(ii) “Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” contributing 0.5 percentage point;
(iii) “Manufacturing” and “Construction” each contributing 0.4 percentage point;
(iv) “Accommodation and food service activities” contributing 0.3 percentage point.
Quarterly growth rates of components of expenditure
3. Total final consumption expenditure in real terms increased by 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018. Final consumption expenditure of households grew by 3.3% and that of general government increased by 4.0%.
4. Investment (Gross fixed capital formation) grew by 19.0% after that of 10.4% observed in the third quarter of 2018. The 19.0% growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 resulted from growths of 33.8% and 11.7% in “Machinery and equipment” and “Building and construction work” respectively.
5. Exports of goods and services further increased by 5.1% after a low growth of 0.2% registered in the third quarter of 2018. The increase of 5.1% is due to growths of 9.2% and 2.2% in exports of goods and exports of services respectively.
Quarter to quarter GVA growth (based on seasonally adjusted GVA)
6. Based on seasonally adjusted data, quarter to quarter GVA grew by 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to a growth of 1.2% in the third quarter of 2018.