1. Throughout the period 2013 to 2016, the quarterly GDP follows almost the same seasonal pattern every year. Production is relatively low in the first quarter, increases gradually in the two subsequent quarters and peaks in the last quarter before declining in the first quarter of the following year.
Quarterly growth rate by industry group (fourth quarter 2016 over fourth quarter 2015)
2. GVA growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2016 over the corresponding quarter of 2015 is estimated at 4.1%. That growth was mainly due to:
(i) “Accommodation and food service activities” which contributed 0.9 percentage point;
(ii) “Financial and insurance activities” contributing 0.6 percentage point;
(iii) “Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” contributing 0.4 percentage point;
(iv) “Manufacturing”, “Construction”, and “Professional, scientific and technical activities" each contributing 0.3 percentage point.
Quarterly growth rates of components of expenditure
3. Total final consumption expenditure in real terms increased by 3.0% in the fourth quarter of 2016 compared to 2.6% in the previous quarter. Final consumption expenditure of households grew by 3.3% compared to 2.9% in the previous quarter while that of general government grew by 1.3% compared to 0.9% in the second quarter of 2016.
4. Investment increased by 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2016 after a growth of 9.4% in the third quarter. The positive growth in the fourth quarter was due to growth of 6.6% in “Building and construction work”, partly offset by a decline of 7.4% in “Machinery and equipment”.
5. Exports of goods and services grew by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2016 following a decline of 5.9% in the third quarter. Imports of goods and services declined by 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2016 compared to a growth of 2.0% in the previous quarter.
Quarter to quarter GVA growth (based on seasonally adjusted GVA)
6. Based on seasonally adjusted data, quarter to quarter GVA grew by 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2016 compared to a growth of 3.0% in the third quarter of 2016.