1. Throughout the period 2012 to 2015, the quarterly GDP follows almost the same seasonal pattern every year. Production is relatively low in the first quarter, increases gradually in the two subsequent quarters and peaks in the last quarter before declining in the first quarter of the following year.
Quarterly growth rate by industry group (fourth quarter 2015 over fourth quarter 2014)
2. GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2015 over the corresponding quarter of 2014 is estimated at 2.6%. This growth is mainly due to: “Accommodation and food service activities” contributing 0.7 percentage point; “Financial and insurance activities” contributing 0.5 percentage point; “Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” contributing 0.4 percentage point; “Information and communication” and “Professional, scientific and technical activities" each contributing 0.3 percentage point; “Transport and storage”, “Administrative and support service activities” each contributing 0.2 percentage point; and “Manufacturing” and “Construction” registering negative contributions of 0.5 and 0.1 percentage point respectively.
Quarterly growth rates of components of expenditure
3. Total final consumption expenditure in real terms increased by 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2015, lower than the 3.1% growth registered in the third quarter of 2015. Final consumption expenditure of households grew by 2.9% compared to 3.2% in the previous quarter while that of general government declined by 2.3% compared to a growth of 2.7% in the third quarter of 2015.
4. Investment continued to decline in the fourth quarter with a negative growth rate of 13.8% following a contraction of 2.6% in the third quarter. The contraction of 13.8% was the result of declines of 1.5% and 30.3% in “Building and construction work” and “Machinery and equipment” respectively.
5. Exports of goods and services contracted further by 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2015 following a decline of 5.7% in the third quarter. Imports of goods and services declined by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2015 after a growth of 5.3% in the previous quarter.
Quarter to quarter GDP growth (based on seasonally adjusted GDP)
6. Quarter to quarter GDP growth rates based on seasonally adjusted data, show that after a growth of 1.3% in the third quarter, GDP in real terms for the fourth quarter was almost same as in the previous quarter, implying a “no growth” in the fourth quarter.