1. Throughout the period 2015 to 2018, the quarterly GDP followed almost the same seasonal pattern each year. Production is relatively low in the first quarter, increases gradually in the two subsequent quarters and peaks in the last quarter before declining in the first quarter of the following year.
Quarterly growth rate by industry group (third quarter 2019 over third quarter 2018)
2. GVA growth rate for the third quarter of 2019 over the corresponding quarter of 2018 is estimated at 2.9%. That growth was mainly due to:
(i) “Financial and insurance activities” contributing 0.6 percentage point;
(ii) “Construction” and “Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” each contributing 0.4 percentage point; and
(iii) “Professional, scientific and technical activities” contributing 0.3 percentage point.
Quarterly growth rates of components of expenditure
3. Total final consumption expenditure in real terms increased by 3.2% in the third quarter of 2019 when compared to the corresponding quarter of 2018 (Table 4). Final consumption expenditure of households grew by 3.3% while that of general government registered a growth of 2.7%.
4. Investment (Gross fixed capital formation) grew by 14.1% after that of 2.4% observed in the second quarter of 2019. The 14.1% growth resulted from growths in “Building and construction work” (7.8%) and “Machinery and equipment” (25.2%).
5. Exports of goods and services contracted by 4.5% compared to a growth of 0.5% in the previous quarter. The contraction is due to negative growths of 8.8% and 0.8% in exports of goods and export of services respectively.
Quarter to quarter GVA growth (based on seasonally adjusted GVA)
6. Based on seasonally adjusted data, quarter to quarter GVA registered no growth in the third quarter of 2019 compared to a growth of 1.0% in the second quarter of 2019.