1. Throughout the period 2015 to 2018, the quarterly GDP followed almost the same seasonal pattern each year. Production is relatively low in the first quarter, increases gradually in the two subsequent quarters and peaks in the last quarter before declining in the first quarter of the following year.
Quarterly growth rate by industry group (first quarter 2019 over first quarter 2018)
2. GVA growth rate for the first quarter of 2019 over the corresponding quarter of 2018 is estimated at 3.2%. That growth was mainly due to:
(i) “Financial and insurance activities” contributing 0.6 percentage point;
(ii) “Construction” and “Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” each contributing 0.4 percentage point;
(iii) “Information and communication” and “Professional, scientific and technical activities” each contributing 0.3 percentage point.
Quarterly growth rates of components of expenditure
3. Total final consumption expenditure in real terms increased by 3.2% in the first quarter of 2019 when compared to the corresponding quarter of 2018 (Table 4). Final consumption expenditure of households grew by 3.3% while that of general government grew by 2.5%.
4. Investment (Gross fixed capital formation) grew by 8.3% after that of 18.6% observed in the fourth quarter of 2018. The 8.3% growth in the first quarter of 2019 resulted from growths of 9.2% and 6.4% in “Building and construction work” and “Machinery and equipment” respectively.
5. Exports of goods and services contracted by 3.1% compared to 8.5% growth in the previous quarter. The contraction is due to a decline of 8.3% in exports of services, partly offset by an increase of 5.1% exports of goods.
Quarter to quarter GVA growth (based on seasonally adjusted GVA)
6. Based on seasonally adjusted data, quarter to quarter GVA grew by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2019 compared to a growth of 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2018.