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Statistics Mauritius (under the aegis of the Ministry of Finance & Economic Development)
Statistics Mauritius>Publications>National Accounts Estimates - September 2017 Issue

National Accounts Estimates - September 2017 Issue

Highlights
 
GDP growth rate
Year 2016
1.   GDP at market prices in 2016 grew at a higher rate of 3.8% compared to the growth of 3.6% in 2015, while GVA at basic prices grew by 3.6% compared to 3.1% in 2015.
 
Year 2017
2.   Based on new information gathered on key sectors of the economy, data available for the first semester of 2017 and taking into consideration policy measures announced in the budget 2017/2018:
·         GDP at market prices in 2017 would grow by 3.9%, higher than the 3.8% growth in 2016; and
·         GVA at basic prices in 2017 would grow by 3.7%, higher than the 3.6% growth in 2016.
 
3.   Main contributors to the 3.7% growth in GVA at basic prices would be: “Financial and insurance activities” (0.7 percentage point), “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” and “Accommodation and food service activities” each contributing 0.4 percentage point, “Construction” and “Professional, scientific and technical activities” each contributing 0.3 percentage point.
 
4.   The main assumptions used for the forecast of 2017 are as follows:
a)     Sugarcane: to contract by 9.7% compared to a growth of 5.5% in 2016, due to a lower sugar production of 350,000 tonnes compared to 386,277 tonnes in 2016.
b)    Other agriculture: to grow by 2.5% compared to 3.2% in 2016.
c)     Manufacturing: to grow at a rate of 1.1%, after a growth of 0.3% in 2016, assuming a growth of 0.7% in ‘food processing’, 1.4% in ‘textile manufacturing’ and 1.2% in ‘other manufacturing’.
d)    Construction: to rebound by 7.5% after a ‘no growth’ in 2016, taking into consideration major investment projects scheduled for 2017.
e)     Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow by 3.1% compared to 3.0% in 2016.
f)     Transportation and storage: to grow by 3.8%, slightly lower than the 3.9% growth in 2016.
g)    Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by 5.2%, based on expected tourist arrivals of 1,360,000.
h)     Information and communication: to grow by 5.5% in 2017 compared to 5.9% in 2016.
i)      Financial and insurance activities: to grow by around 5.5% in 2017 compared to 5.7% in 2016.
j)      Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 5.6%, slightly lower than the 5.7% growth in 2016.
k)     Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to expand by 2.4% compared to 2.7% in 2016.
l)      Education: to grow at 2.3%, higher than the 0.8% growth registered in 2016.
m)   Human health and social work activities: to grow by 5.2%, higher than the 2.2% growth in 2016.
Consumption and Saving
5.   Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 3.1% in 2017 compared to 2.9% in 2016. Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage of GDP at market prices for 2017 would be 11.0, same as in 2016.
Investment (GFCF)
6.   Investment would grow by 4.5% in 2017, after a growth of 3.7% in 2016. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment would grow by 5.1% compared to 1.6% in 2016.
a)           Private sector investment is expected to grow by 4.9% in 2017, lower than the 6.1% growth in 2016. 
b)           Public sector investment would rebound by 3.3% in 2017, after a contraction of 2.8% in 2016. Excluding aircraft and marine vessel, public sector investment is expected to grow by 5.7% in 2017 after a contraction of 10.3% in 2016.
c)           Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices would be 17.3% in 2017, same as in 2016. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 17.1% compared to 16.9% in 2016.
d)           Private investment rate would increase to 13.0% in 2017 from 12.8% in 2016 while public investment rate would be 4.4% in 2017, same as in 2016. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, private investment rate in 2017 would be 13.0% and that of public sector would be 4.1%.
e)           The share of private sector investment in GFCF is expected to increase to 74.7% in 2017 from 74.4% in 2016 while that of the public sector would fall to 25.3% from 25.6% in 2016. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the share of private sector investment in 2017 would be 75.8% and that of the public sector, 24.2%.
 
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 September 2017