1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current market prices grew by 3.5%, lower than the growth of 3.7% in 2014.
2. Gross Value Added (GVA) at current basic prices grew by 3.0%, compared to 3.6% in 2014. Exclusive of sugar, the growth rate was 3.1%, lower than the rate of 3.7% in 2014.
3. GDP at current market prices, which includes taxes (net of subsidies), is forecasted to grow by 3.9% in 2016, higher than the 3.5% growth estimated in 2015.
4. On the basis of new information gathered on key sectors of the economy and data available for the first semester of 2016, GVA at current basic prices is expected to grow by around 3.7% in 2016, higher than the 3.0% growth in 2015. Exclusive of sugar, the growth rate would remain at 3.7%.
The main assumptions used for the forecast of 2016 are as follows:
(i) Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to recover by 4.3%, after the contraction of 0.3% in 2015. Within the sector,
a. “Sugarcane”: a local sugar production of around 400,000 tonnes, resulting in a growth of 9.6% compared to a decline of 6.2% in 2015, and
b. “Other Agriculture”: to expand by 2.7% compared to 1.6% in 2015.
(ii) Manufacturing: to recover by around 0.6%, after ‘no growth’ in 2015. Within the sector,
a. “Sugar milling” to grow by around 10.0%, after the negative growth of 8.9% in 2015. This expansion would be due to an expected local sugar production of 400,000 tonnes and the refining of 60,000 tonnes of imported raw sugar. In 2015, the local sugar production was 366,070 tonnes and 70,000 tonnes of raw sugar were imported for refining;
b. “Food processing” to expand by 2.0% after a growth of 3.0% in 2015;
c. “Textile manufacturing” to contract further by 2.0% after the drop of 2.8% in 2015; and
d. “Other manufacturing” is expected to rebound by 1.3%, after a contraction of 0.2% in 2015.
(iii) Construction: to register a ‘no growth’ in 2016 after five consecutive years of contraction.
(iv) Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow by 3.2% compared to 2.8% in 2015.
(v) Transportation and storage: to grow by 3.8%, higher than the 3.4% growth in 2015.
(vi) Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by around 7.5%, based on a forecast of around 1,250,000 tourist arrivals in 2016 compared to 1,151,252 in 2015.
(vii) Information and communication: to grow by 7.0% in 2016, slightly higher than the growth of 6.9% in 2015.
(viii) Financial and insurance activities: to grow at a higher rate of 5.7% in 2016 compared to 5.3% in 2015.
(ix) Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 6.0%, higher than the 5.1% growth in 2015.
(x) Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to expand by 3.3% compared to 0.8% in 2015.
(xi) Other sectors: growth rates based on recent past trends.
Consumption and Saving
5. Final consumption expenditure of households and general government is expected to grow by 2.9% higher than the 2.7% in 2015. Gross Domestic Savings as a percentage to GDP at current market prices would increase to 11.4 from 10.4 in 2015.
6. Total investment would rebound by 5.9% in 2016 after several years of contraction. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, investment would grow by 3.8% after a decline of 2.7% in 2015.
(i) Private sector investment is expected to grow by 6.1% in 2016, after the drop of 7.6% in 2015.
(ii) Public sector investment would expand by 5.3% in 2016 compared to 1.0% in 2015. Excluding aircraft and marine vessels, public sector investment is expected to contract by 2.2% in 2016 after a high growth of 13.0% in 2015.
(iii) Investment rate, defined as the ratio of investment to GDP at current market prices would slightly increase to 17.5% in 2016, from 17.4% in 2015. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, the rate would be 17.2% lower than the growth of 17.4% in 2015.
(iv) Private investment rate would increase to 12.8% in 2016 from 12.6% in 2015 while public investment rate would increase to 4.8% in 2016 from 4.7% in 2015. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, private investment rate in 2016 would still be 12.8% and that of public sector would be 4.4%.
(v) The share of the private sector in total investment is expected to increase to 72.8% in 2016, slightly higher than the 72.7% in 2015 while that of the public sector would decrease to 27.2% from 27.3% in 2015. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, the share of private sector investment in 2016 would be 74.2% and that of the public sector 25.8%.