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Statistics Mauritius (under the aegis of the Ministry of Finance & Economic Development)
Statistics Mauritius>Publications>National Accounts Estimates, September 2018 Issue

National Accounts Estimates, September 2018 Issue

Year 2017
1.    GDP at market prices in 2017 grew by 3.8% and GVA at basic prices by 3.6%, same as in 2016. Excluding sugar, the GVA growth rate was 3.7%, higher than the rate of 3.6% in 2016.
 
Year 2018
2.    Based on new information gathered on key sectors of the economy, performance observed in the first semester of 2018 and taking into consideration policy measures announced in the budget 2018/2019:
·         GDP at market prices in 2018 would grow by 3.9% as forecasted in June 2018; and
·         GVA at basic prices in 2018 would grow by 3.7% instead of 3.8% as forecasted in June 2018.
 
3.    Main contributors to the 3.7% growth in GVA at basic prices would be: “Financial and insurance activities” (0.7 percentage point), “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” (0.5 percentage point), “Construction” (0.4 percentage point) and “Accommodation and food service activities” (0.3 percentage point).
 
4.    The main assumptions used are as follows:
a)    Sugarcane: a sugar production of 330,000 tonnes compared to 355,000 tonnes in 2017, resulting in a further decline of 7.9% same as observed in 2017.
b)    Other agriculture: to grow by 0.8% compared to 2.3% in 2017.
c)    Manufacturing: to grow at a rate of 0.9%, after a growth of 1.5% in 2017, assuming growths of 2.3% and 2.2% in ‘food processing’ and ‘other manufacturing’ respectively.
d)    Construction: to grow by 9.5%, higher than the 7.5% growth in 2017, assuming timely implementation of major public investment projects such as Metro Express and Côte d’Or Sports Complex scheduled for 2018.
e)    Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow at a higher rate of 3.8% compared to 3.1% in 2017.
f)     Transportation and storage: to grow by 3.5%, lower than the 3.7% growth in 2017.
g)    Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by 3.6%, based on expected tourist arrivals of 1,395,000.
h)   Information and communication: to grow by 5.6%, higher than the 5.5% growth in 2017.
i)     Financial and insurance activities: to grow by around 5.5%, same as in 2017.
j)     Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 5.1%, lower than the 5.3% growth in 2017.
k)    Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to grow by 1.7% compared to 0.6% in 2017.
 
Consumption and Saving
5.    Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 3.4% in 2018 compared to 2.9% in 2017.
6.    Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage to GDP at market prices for 2018 would be 9.7 compared to 10.0 in 2017.
 
Investment (GFCF)
7.    Investment would grow by 5.5% in 2018, after a growth of 4.7% in 2017, mostly explained by a higher expected growth in public sector investment. Private sector investment is expected to record a ‘no growth’ in 2018 compared to the 7.3% growth in 2017 and public sector investment would rebound by 23.2% in 2018, after a contraction of 2.9% in 2017. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment would grow by 6.7% compared to 5.6% in 2017.
8.    Investment rate would increase to 17.8% in 2018, from 17.4% in 2017. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 17.8% compared to 17.2% in 2017. Private investment rate would decrease to 12.9% in 2018 from 13.3% in 2017 while public investment rate would increase to 4.9% in 2018 from 4.1% in 2017.
9.    The share of private sector investment in GFCF is expected to decrease to 72.3% in 2018 from 76.3% in 2017 while that of the public sector would increase to 27.7% from 23.7% in 2017.
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September 2018