GDP growth rate
1. Based on information gathered on key sectors of the economy:
. GDP at market prices grew by 3.7% in 2016, higher than the 3.5% growth in 2015;
. GVA at basic prices grew by 3.5% in 2016 compared to 3.0% in 2015.
2. Main contributors to the 3.5% growth in GVA are: “Financial and insurance activities” (0.7 percentage point), “Accommodation and food service activities” (0.6 percentage point), “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” (0.4 percentage point), “Information and communication” and “Professional, scientific and technical activities” each contributing 0.3 percentage point.
Consumption and Saving
3. Final consumption expenditure of households and general government grew by 2.8%, slightly higher than the growth of 2.7% in 2015. Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage to GDP at market prices increased to 11.1% from 10.4% in 2015.
4. Total investment rebounded by 3.4% in 2016 after several years of contraction. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment grew by 1.3% after a decline of -2.7% in 2015.
a) Private sector investment recovered with a growth of 5.7%, after the negative growth of -7.6% in 2015.
b) Public sector investment declined by -2.9% in 2016 compared to the growth of 1.0% in 2015. Excluding aircraft and marine vessel, public sector investment contracted by -10.4% in 2016 after a high growth of 13.0% in 2015.
c) Investment rate decreased to 17.2% in 2016, from 17.4% in 2015. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate was 16.9% compared to 17.4% in 2015.
d) Private investment rate increased to 12.8% in 2016 from 12.6% in 2015 while public investment rate decreased to 4.4% in 2016 from 4.7% in 2015.
e) The share of the private sector in total investment increased to 74.4% from 72.7% in 2015 while that of the public sector decreased to 25.6% from 27.3% in 2015.
5. Based on updated information on key sectors of the economy and policy measures announced in the Budget 2016/2017, growth rate of GDP at market prices is forecasted at 3.9%. The growth rate of GVA at basic prices is forecasted at 3.8%.
The main assumptions used for the forecast of 2017 are as follows:
a) Sugarcane: a local sugar production of around 390,000 tonnes, resulting in a growth of 0.9%
b) Other agriculture: to grow by 2.7% subject to implementation of budgetary measures to expand the agri-business sector.
c) Manufacturing: to recover by 1.1%, after a decline of -0.1%, assuming a growth of 0.2% of “Textile manufacturing” coupled with a growth of 1.5% in ‘Food processing’.
d) Construction: to rebound by 7.0% after a ‘no growth’ in 2016, based on high investment expected in both private and public projects.
e) Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow by 3.0%.
f) Accommodation and food service activities: a growth of 4.1%, based on expected tourist arrivals of 1,340,000.
g) Information and communication: to grow by 6.0% in 2017 in line with the government strategy to move Mauritius towards a fully-fledged digital economy.
h) Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 5.5% in 2017 after considering the amendments to the DTAA between Mauritius and India.
i) Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to expand by 3.0%, assuming ongoing recruitment in the public sector.
6. The real growth rate of final consumption expenditure of households and general government would be 3.0% higher than the 2.8% in 2016. Gross Domestic Savings as a percentage of GDP at current market prices would be 11.3% compared to 11.1% in 2016.
7. Investment is expected to grow at a higher rate of 7.4% compared to 3.4% in 2016. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the growth would be 6.8% compared to 1.3% in 2016. Investment rate would attain 17.9% in 2017 from 17.2% in 2016.