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Statistics Mauritius (under the aegis of the Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Development)
Statistics Mauritius>Publications>National Accounts Estimates, June 2018 Issue

National Accounts Estimates, June 2018 Issue

Year 2017
1.    GDP at market prices in 2017 grew by 3.8% and GVA at basic prices by 3.6%, same as in 2016. Excluding sugar, the GVA growth rate was 3.7%, higher than the rate of 3.6% in 2016.
Year 2018
2.    Based on information gathered on key sectors of the economy, performance observed in the first quarter of 2018 and taking into consideration policy measures announced in the budget 2018/2019:
·         GDP at market prices in 2018 would grow by 3.9% as forecasted in March 2018; and
·         GVA at basic prices in 2018 would grow by 3.8% instead of 3.9% as forecasted in March 2018.
3.    Main contributors to the 3.8% growth in GVA at basic prices would be: “Financial and insurance activities” (0.7 percentage point), “Construction” and “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” each contributing 0.4 percentage point, and “Accommodation and food service activities” and “Professional, scientific and technical activities” each contributing 0.3 percentage point.
4.    The main assumptions used are as follows:
a)    Sugarcane: a sugar production of 350,000 tonnes compared to 355,000 tonnes in 2017, resulting in a further drop of 1.6% after the contraction of 7.9% in 2017.
b)    Other agriculture: to grow by 1.3% compared to 2.3% in 2017.
c)    Manufacturing: to grow at a rate of 1.3%, after a growth of 1.5% in 2017, assuming a growth of 2.0% in both ‘food processing’ and ‘other manufacturing’.
d)    Construction: to grow by 9.5%, higher than the 7.5% growth in 2017, assuming timely implementation of major public investment projects such as Metro Express and Côte d’Or Sports Complex.
e)    Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow at a higher rate of 3.7% compared to 3.1% in 2017.
f)     Transportation and storage: to grow by 3.5%, lower than the 3.7% growth in 2017.
g)    Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by 3.6%, based on expected tourist arrivals of 1,395,000.
h)   Information and communication: to grow by 5.6%, higher than the 5.5% growth in 2017.
i)     Financial and insurance activities: to grow by around 5.5%, same as in 2017.
j)     Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 5.3%, same as in 2017.
k)    Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to grow by 2.0% compared to 0.6% in 2017.
Consumption and Saving
5.    Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 3.2% in 2018 compared to 2.8% in 2017.
6.    Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage to GDP at market prices for 2018 would be 10.4 compared to 10.6 in 2017.
Investment (GFCF)
7.    Investment would grow by 2.9% in 2018, after a growth of 4.7% in 2017, explained by a decline in private sector investment and a higher growth in public sector investment. Private sector investment is expected to decline by 3.6% in 2018 compared to the 7.3% growth in 2017 and public sector investment would rebound by 23.7% in 2018, after a contraction of 2.9% in 2017. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment would grow by 4.4% compared to 5.6% in 2017.
8.    Investment rate would slightly decrease to 17.2% in 2018, from 17.3% in 2017. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 17.2% compared to 17.1% in 2017. Private investment rate would decrease to 12.3% in 2018 from 13.2% in 2017 while public investment rate would increase to 4.9% in 2018 from 4.1% in 2017.
9.    The share of private sector investment in GFCF is expected to drop to 71.5% in 2018 from 76.3% in 2017 while that of the public sector would increase to 28.5% from 23.7% in 2017. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the share of private sector investment in 2018 would be 71.5% and that of the public sector, 28.5%.
 June 2018