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Statistics Mauritius (under the aegis of the Ministry of Finance & Economic Development)
Statistics Mauritius>Publications>National Accounts Estimates, June 2016 issue

National Accounts Estimates, June 2016 issue

Highlights

 

Rebasing of National Accounts estimates
 
National Accounts estimates for 2013 to 2016 have been rebased on data obtained from the Census of Economic Activities (CEA) conducted in 2013. These estimates are therefore not strictly comparable with figures published in previous National Accounts publications, which were based on the CEA conducted in 2007. Furthermore, the revision exercise brought some other changes in the estimation process, which includes improvements in:
 
(a) estimates for the agricultural sector in light with results obtained from the Census of Agriculture (CA) conducted in 2014,
(b) coverage by including the contribution of Global Business Companies (GBCs) based on data obtained from GBC1 Surveys carried out by the Financial Services Commission (FSC),
(c) estimates based on concepts, methodology and new data sources as per recommendations of the System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008.
 
The table below gives the main aggregates on the new base (2013) compared to the old base (2007).
 
Revised Main Aggregates, 2013 - 2016
          Base year  2013   2014   2015   2016
(i) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current market prices 2013 371.0 390.7 408.3 436.8
  (R Billion) 2007 366.3 386.2 403.5 431.8
(ii) GDP growth rate at current market prices (%)  2013 +3.4 +3.7 +3.5 +3.9
  2007 +3.2 +3.6 +3.5 +3.9
(iii) Gross value added (GVA) at current basic prices 2013 327.7 346.6 362.0 388.0
  (R Billion) 2007 322.9 342.2 357.2 382.9
(iv) GVA growth rate at current basic prices (%) 2013 +3.4 +3.6 +3.0 +3.9
  2007 +3.2 +3.4 +3.1 +3.9
(v) Final consumption expenditure  2013 330.3 349.6 365.8 388.1
  (R Billion) 2007 323.0 341.9 357.5 382.3
(vi) Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 2013 77.6 74.0 71.3 78.1
  (R Billion) 2007 77.6 74.0 71.3 78.8
(vii) Saving rate 2013 12.1 9.0 10.4 10.8
  (GNS as a % of GNDI excluding GBC) 2007 13.7 11.0 11.1 10.5
(viii) Investment rate 2013 20.9 18.9 17.5 17.9
  (GFCF as a % of GDP at current market prices) 2007 21.2   19.2   17.7   18.2

 

Rebased data show that

  • The level of both GDP and GVA has been revised upwards throughout the period 2013 to 2016
  • Final consumption expenditure, the major component of expenditure on GDP, has also been increased during the same period
  • The level of Gross Fixed Capital Formation has remained almost the same from 2013 to 2015.
  • Real GDP growth rates, GVA growth rates, investment rates and saving rates have marginally changed all over the period 2013 to 2016.

 

 
Year 2015
 
1.  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current market prices grew by 3.5%, lower than the growth of 3.7% in 2014.
2.  Gross Value Added (GVA) at current basic prices grew by 3.0%, compared to 3.6% in 2014. Exclusive of sugar, the rate was 3.1%, lower than the rate of 3.7% in 2014.
Year 2016
 
3.  GDP at current market prices is forecasted to grow by 3.9% in 2016, higher than the 3.5% growth observed in 2015.
4.  On the basis of information gathered on key sectors of the economy and the performance of the first quarter of 2016, GVA at current basic prices is expected to grow by around 3.9% in 2016, higher than the 3.0% growth in 2015. Exclusive of sugar, the growth rate would remain at 3.9%
 
 
The main assumptions used for the forecast of 3.9% GVA growth in 2016 are as follows:
(i)    Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to recover by 4.5%, after the contraction of -0.3% observed in 2015. Within the sector,
a.   Sugarcane”: a local sugar production of around 400,000 tonnes, resulting in a growth of 9.6% compared to -6.2% in 2015, and
b.    “Other Agriculture”: to expand by 3.0% compared to 1.6% in 2015.
(ii)    Manufacturing: to recover by around 1.3%, following the no growth recorded in 2015. Within the sector,
a.   “Sugar milling” ” to grow by around 10.0%, after the negative growth of -8.9% in 2015. This expansion would be due to a local sugar production of 400,000 tonnes and the refining of 60,000 tonnes of imported raw sugar. In 2015, the local sugar production was 366,070 tonnes and 70,000 tonnes of raw sugar were imported for refining;
b.   “Food processing” to expand by a rate of 2.0% after a growth of 3.0% in 2015;
c.   "Textile manufacturing” to grow by 0.2%, as opposed to the -2.8% growth observed in 2015; and
d.   “Other manufacturing” is expected to rebound by 1.3% following the contraction of    -0.2% registered in 2015.
 
Activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOEs) are expected to decline by -0.3% after a contraction of -3.1% in 2015.
(iii)   Construction: to recover by 1.6% after five consecutive years of contraction.
(iv)   Transportation and storage: to grow by 3.7%, higher than the 3.4% growth in 2015.
(v)   Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by around 6.9% based on a forecast of around 1,240,000 tourist arrivals in 2016 compared to 1,151,723 in 2015.
(vi)  Information and communication: to grow by 7.0% in 2016, same as in 2015.
(vii) Financial and insurance activities: to grow at a higher rate of 5.4% in 2016 compared to the 5.3% growth in 2015.
(viii)  Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 6.0%, higher than the 5.1% growth in 2015.
(ix)   Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to expand by 3.7% compared to 0.8% in 2015.
(x)    Other sectors: growth rates based on recent past trends.
Consumption and Saving
5.     Final consumption expenditure of households and government is expected to grow by 2.9% compared to 2.7% in 2015. Gross Domestic Savings as a percentage to GDP at current market prices would be 11.2 compared to 10.4 in 2015.
 
Investment
6.     Total investment would rebound by 6.4% in 2016 after several years of contraction.  Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, investment would grow by 4.4% after a decline of -2.5% in 2015.
(i)      Private sector investment is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2016, after the negative growth of         -7.3% in 2015. 
(ii)     Public sector investment would expand by 14.7% in 2016 compared to 0.9% in 2015.
(iii)    Investment rate, defined as the ratio of investment to GDP at current market prices would increase to 17.9% in 2016, from 17.5% in 2015. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, the rate would be 17.5% same as in 2015.
(iv)    Private investment rate would slightly decrease to 12.6% in 2016 from 12.7% in 2015 while public investment rate would increase to 5.3% in 2016 from 4.8% in 2015.
(v)    The share of the private sector in total investment is expected to decrease to 70.6% in 2016 from 72.8% in 2015 while that of the public sector would increase to 29.4% from 27.2%. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, the share of private sector investment in 2016 would be 72.0% and that of the public sector 28.0%.
 

 

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  June 2016