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Statistics Mauritius (under the aegis of the Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Development)
Statistics Mauritius>Publications>National Accounts Estimates, Dec 2018 Issue

National Accounts Estimates, Dec 2018 Issue

Year 2018
GDP growth rate
1.  Based on new information gathered on key sectors of the economy and performance observed in the first nine months of 2018:
·         GDP at market prices would grow by 3.8%, lower than the 3.9% growth forecasted in September 2018;
·         GVA at basic prices would grow by 3.6% instead of 3.7% as forecasted in September 2018.
2.  Main contributors to the 3.6% growth in GVA at basic prices are: “Financial and insurance activities” (0.6 percentage point), “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” (0.5 percentage point), “Construction” (0.4 percentage point) and “Accommodation and food service activities” (0.3 percentage point), partly offset by “Agriculture, fishing and forestry” (-0.1 percentage point).  
Consumption and Saving
3.  Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 3.4% in 2018 compared to 2.9% in 2017. Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage to GDP at market prices for 2018 would be 9.6 compared to 10.1 in 2017.
Investment (GFCF)
4.  Investment would grow by 6.6% in 2018, higher than the 4.7% growth in 2017, mostly explained by a higher growth expected in public sector investment. Private sector investment is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2018, lower than the 7.3% growth in 2017, and public sector investment to rebound by 17.8% in 2018, after a contraction of 2.9% in 2017. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment would grow by 7.8% compared to 5.6% in 2017.
5.   Investment rate works out to 18.0% in 2018 against 17.4% in 2017. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 18.0% compared to 17.2% in 2017. Private investment rate would be 13.3% in 2018, same as in 2017 and public investment rate 4.7% in 2018 compared to 4.1% in 2017.
6.   The share of private sector investment in GFCF is expected to decrease to 73.7% in 2018 from 76.3% in 2017 while that of the public sector would increase to 26.3% from 23.7% in 2017.
Year 2019
7.  GDP at market prices is forecasted to grow by around 4.0% in 2019. Based on recent past trends and taking into account policy measures announced in the budget 2018/2019, GVA at basic prices is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2019, higher than the 3.6% growth in 2018.
The main assumptions used for the forecast of 2019 are as follows:
a)         Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to grow by 2.3% based on a sugar production of around 320,000 tonnes same as in 2018 and an expected increase of 2.7% in non-sugarcane agricultural activities.
b)         Manufacturing: to expand by around 1.7%, higher than the 0.8% growth in 2018.
c)         Construction: to grow by 8.5% compared to 9.5% in 2018, assuming implementation of major public investment projects announced in the last budget.
d)         Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by 3.5% based on tourist arrivals forecasted at around 1,450,000 compared to 1,397,000 in 2018.
e)         Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 5.4%, same as in 2018.
f)          Other sectors: growth rates based on recent past trends.
December 2018