GDP growth rate
1. Based on information gathered on key sectors of the economy and data available for the first nine months of 2017, GDP at market prices would grow by 3.9% and GVA at basic prices by 3.7%, same as forecasted in September 2017.
2. Main contributors to the 3.7% growth in GVA at basic prices would be: “Financial and insurance activities” (0.7 percentage point), “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” and “Accommodation and food service activities” each contributing 0.4 percentage point, “Construction” (0.3 percentage point), “Manufacturing” and “Professional, scientific and technical activities” each contributing 0.2 percentage point.
Consumption and Saving
3. Final consumption expenditure of households and general government would grow by 3.1% in 2017 compared to 2.9% in 2016. Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) as a percentage of GDP at market prices for 2017 would be 11.0, same as in 2016.
4. Investment would grow by 5.0% in 2017, higher than the 3.7% growth in 2016. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, investment would grow by 5.2% compared to 1.6% in 2016.
a) Private sector investment is expected to grow by 6.2% in 2017, higher than the 6.1% growth in 2016.
b) Public sector investment would rebound by 1.4% in 2017, after a contraction of 2.8% in 2016. Excluding aircraft and marine vessel, public sector investment is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2017 after a contraction of 10.3% in 2016.
c) Investment rate, defined as the ratio of GFCF to GDP at market prices would be 17.3% in 2017, same as in 2016. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 17.0% compared to 16.9% in 2016.
d) Private investment rate would increase to 13.1% in 2017 from 12.8% in 2016 while public investment rate would slightly decrease to 4.3% in 2017 from 4.4% in 2016. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, private investment rate in 2017 would be 13.1% and that of public sector would be 4.0%.
e) The share of private sector investment in GFCF is expected to increase to 75.3% in 2017 from 74.4% in 2016 while that of the public sector would fall to 24.7% from 25.6% in 2016. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the share of private sector investment in 2017 would be 76.7% and that of the public sector, 23.3%.
5. GDP at market prices is forecasted to grow by around 4.0% in 2018. Based on information available on key sectors of the economy and taking into account policy measures announced in the budget 2017/2018, GVA at basic prices is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2018, higher than the 3.7% growth in 2017.
The main assumptions used for the forecast of 2018 are as follows:
a) Agriculture, forestry and fishing: to grow by 2.0% based on a sugar production of around 350,000 tonnes same as in 2017 and an expected increase of 2.5% in non-sugarcane agricultural activities.
b) Manufacturing: to grow by around 1.3%, higher than the 1.2% growth in 2017.
c) Construction: to grow by 9.5% compared to 7.5% in 2017, assuming implementation of major public investment projects announced in the last budget.
d) Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow at a higher rate of 3.6% compared to 3.1% in 2017 based on an expected increase in trade activities following the introduction of a national minimum wage and the negative income tax system.
e) Accommodation and food service activities: to grow by 3.8% based on tourist arrivals forecasted at around 1,425,000 compared to 1,360,000 in 2017.
f) Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 5.5%, same as in 2017.
g) Professional, scientific and technical activities: to grow by 5.8% compared to 5.3% in 2017 based on an expected rise in services allied to the construction sector.
h) Other sectors: growth rates based on recent past trends.