National Accounts Estimates (2013 – 2016) – December 2016 issue
GDP and GVA
1. On the basis of information gathered on key sectors of the economy:
· GDP at market prices would grow at a higher rate of 3.8% compared to the 3.5% growth in 2015;
· GVA at basic prices in 2016 would expand by 3.6%, higher than the 3.0% growth in 2015. Exclusive of sugar, the rate would remain at 3.6%.
2. Main contributors to the 3.6% growth in GVA are: “Financial and insurance activities” (0.7 percentage point), “Accommodation and food service activities” (0.5 percentage point), “Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” (0.4 percentage point), “Information and communication” and “Professional, scientific and technical activities” each contributing 0.3 percentage point.
Consumption and Saving
3. Final consumption expenditure of households and general government is expected to grow by 2.9% higher than the 2.7% in 2015. Gross Domestic Savings as a percentage to GDP at current market prices would increase to 11.2 from 10.4 in 2015.
4. Total investment would rebound by 5.7% in 2016 after several years of contraction. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, investment would grow by 3.6% after a decline of 2.7% in 2015.
a) Private sector investment is expected to recover by 6.2% in 2016, after the drop of 7.6% in 2015.
b) Public sector investment would expand by 4.3% in 2016 compared to 1.0% in 2015. Excluding aircraft and marine vessels, public sector investment is expected to contract by 3.2% in 2016 after a high growth of 13.0% in 2015.
c) Investment rate, defined as the ratio of investment to GDP at current market prices would increase to 17.6% in 2016, from 17.4% in 2015. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, the rate would be 17.3%, slightly lower than the growth of 17.4% in 2015.
d) Private investment rate would increase to 12.8% in 2016 from 12.6% in 2015 while public investment rate would increase to 4.8% in 2016 from 4.7% in 2015. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, private investment rate in 2016 would still be 12.8% and that of public sector would be 4.4%.
e) The share of the private sector in total investment is expected to increase to 73.0% in 2016, higher than the 72.7% in 2015 while that of the public sector would decrease to 27.0% from 27.3% in 2015. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, the share of private sector investment in 2016 would be 74.5% and that of the public sector 25.5%.
5. GDP at market prices is forecasted to grow by around 3.9% in 2017. Based on information available on key sectors of the economy and taking into account policy measures announced in the budget 2016/2017, GVA at basic prices is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2017, higher than the 3.6% growth in 2016. Exclusive of sugar, the GVA growth rate would remain at 3.8%.
The main assumptions used for the forecast of 2017 are as follows:
a) Sugarcane: a growth of 2.5% based on a local sugar production of around 400,000 tonnes.
b) Other agriculture: to grow by 3.0% subject to implementation of budgetary measures to expand the agri-business sector.
c) Manufacturing: to expand by around 1.5%, higher than the 0.3% growth of 2016. This is based mainly on the assumptions of no further decline in activities of major drivers in ‘textile manufacturing’ and also subject to implementation of measures announced in the last budget 2016/2017 to diversify and modernize the manufacturing sector.
d) Construction: to rebound by 7.0% after a ‘no growth’ in 2016, assuming implementation of public investment projects announced in the last budget and taking off of some major private projects which were delayed in 2016.
e) Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles: to grow by 3.0% same as in 2016.
f) Accommodation and food service activities: a growth of 3.2%, based on expected tourist arrivals of around 1,320,000 and forecasted tourism earnings of Rs 59 billion.
g) Information and communication: to grow by 6.7% in 2017, slightly higher than the growth of 6.5% in 2016, in line with the government strategy to move Mauritius towards a fully-fledged digital economy.
h) Financial and insurance activities: to grow by 5.5% in 2017, slightly lower than the 5.7% growth in 2016 taking into consideration the protocol amendments to the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) between Mauritius and India.
i) Public administration and defence; compulsory social security: to expand by 3.0%, assuming ongoing recruitment in the public sector.